3 ms·
> Time preference theories of interest are unsatisfactory, because for them to make sense, lenders must have perfect knowledge about the future and be perfectly
by cosmojg 3y ago
> Time preference theories of interest are unsatisfactory, because for them to make sense, lenders must have perfect knowledge about the future and be perfectly aware of competing usages of money at any point in the lending window. If they don't have that information, they can't have time preference. Lenders will be reluctant to lend at "market clearing" interest rates and consistently demand a premium giving the rise to usury.
If everything required perfect knowledge to be actionably modeled, humans wouldn't do anything. At the very least, markets wouldn't clear.
In practice, the realized price of time preference is typically a fraction (or multiple) of its full value, proportionally reflecting the uncertainty involved in its estimation. This is true of all factors involved in the pricing of any marketable asset, not just time preference and not just loans.