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It actually says that 1 to 7 degrees are the most conservative predictions: > The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise
by docdeek 3y ago
It actually says that 1 to 7 degrees are the most conservative predictions:
> The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown.
This at least implies (though doesn’t confirm) that the ‘worst-case scenarios’ from the less-conservative predictions were higher than 7 degrees in 30 years.
- rigid 3y agoWhy would a higher temperature be the more optimistic estimate?
- defrost 3y agoHere 'conservative' means the least extreme best case assumptions. Here higher tempretures are the pessimistic worse case predictions.
- rigid 3y agoI don't think so. Conservative ethymologically means "preserve the current state". Hence the opposite would be pessimistic. Another person mentioning that these are Farenheit units, makes it clear. There were publications in the 80s predicting much higher numbers and shorter timelines.
- defrost 3y agoTempreture rises higher than 7 F degrees were the pessimistic least conservative estimates of the time. Lower tempreture rises were conservative estimates based on "preserving the current levels of CO2" emissions. I am indeed one of the "another person"s that mentioned these are F units.
- rigid 3y agoNah, a more optimistic prediction would already be "-2 to 5" degrees. "Conservative" in this context relates to the method, not the outcome. You're still ignoring the range-characteristic of the outcome and talk like it was "5-7" degrees.