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How soon - if ever - will AI tools be able to replace or at least reduce the demand for these offshoring companies? I've seen the code some of them put out. Eve

by spaceman_2020 3y ago

How soon - if ever - will AI tools be able to replace or at least reduce the demand for these offshoring companies? I've seen the code some of them put out. Even chatGPT 3.5 can be better than them.

pjmlp 3y ago
Beware of one wishes for, it starts with offshoring companies, juniors will follow and eventually only the AI druids will code.
- thejackgoode 3y ago
  prompt shamans, yes
HenryBemis 3y ago
Nope it cannot. I have been using 3.5 to write code. I wrote a 'simple' app (200-300 lines) that although 'simple' it took A LOT of back and forth with the 3.5. In the end I had to spend a couple of days combing through it to add some key features (i.e. set values to zero so you don't see old data, etc.). Basically crude (but smart?) coding (I am not a professional developer). When I finished the code and the app was performing EXACTLY as I wanted (v1.0), I thought to start planning for the v1.1 and when I pasted my code to the 3.5 and asked it to 'work on it on the new features' it was a shitstorm :) Perhaps it was me feeding the requirements 'wrongly', but it was like pulling teeth 'guiding' it to correct even the simplest mistakes.
- lacrimacida 3y ago
  GPT can sew snippets of code and see patterns but it has no understanding of coding and such. But even without this ability it could work amazingly well if you know what to ask for and accept its limitations.
- IggleSniggle 3y ago
  This is also how it is with offshoring.
- BoorishBears 3y ago
  Someone who's not a professional developer was able to take the weakest model OpenAI offers today and get exactly what they wanted for a V1. Have you actually worked with a consultancy? Have you priced out what the back and forth you had with 3.5 would have cost with a real human with a similar level of depth? _ I personally don't think AI's effect on offshoring will be so cut and dry, since it's not like offshore developers can't level up with it too, but your example is showing how badly people are underestimating the impact AI will have on programming.
- eddtries 3y ago
  I think you'll find the most succinct requirements for a program is the code itself - you can add more and more logic to guide GPT to generate something but eventually you're just writing code yourself anyway.
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  This is far too flippantly confident about a piece of tech that's barely a year old, and the inferior version of that. I'm surprised by the inability of people in tech to extrapolate the advancement of this particular tech.
  - Semaphor 3y ago
    They replied to this: > Even chatGPT 3.5 can be better than them.
    - spaceman_2020 3y ago
      I maintain that ChatGPT 3.5 can be better than entry level Infosys engineers.
  - eastern 3y ago
    It's like showing up at Kitty Hawk in 1903 and, "You mean this thing can't even fly me to New York? Useless!'
  - GabeIsko 3y ago
    I think there is a difference between mastering fluid dynamics to the point where you can have sustained power flight, and building a machine that arranges words next to other words based based problematically in training data. But even if you want to torture this analogy, LLMs are a godsend to techncial service Companies. It's like saying "Oh, planes are faster so I guess people won't be spending as much time traveling and there will be less of it now".
- financltravsty 3y ago
  Try 4.0. I use it a lot for tedious glue code, and I couldn't be happier to have my time back to focus on more important things.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
gosub100 3y ago
Didn't people ask that back in ~2000, "how soon before offshore employees take our jobs?". The devil is in the details. Can AI solve a linker error and fix a visual studio project file? Sure, if you train it with a million samples. I think the reason AI won't work for anything more than wireframe is that there are too many edge cases to adequately train it.
- ChrisMarshallNY 3y ago
  > Sure, if you train it with a million samples. I am not an AI guru, but, from my limited understanding, LLMs use trillions of inputs, and that's one reason why they work so well. What we have now, is barely out of the playpen. I am quite sure that specialized LLMs (like troubleshooters) are well under way.
kfk 3y ago
You are looking at this the wrong way. Moving IT to offshoring companies is a risk mitigation strategy, now if critical systems go down it's someone else's problem.
- dmatech 3y ago
  It's someone else's fault. It's even their problem. But it's still your problem too so long as it affects your business.
tonyedgecombe 3y ago
chatGPT will likely improve the standards of many low skilled developers.
GabeIsko 3y ago
A machine that doesn't actually understand anything, but is able to generate a ton of coherent text anyway? That's an offshore technical service company's dream. What did you say? That it is also complicated to deploy properly? And there is no objective way to measure its success? Christmas keeps coming early.

How soon - if ever - will AI tools be able to replace or at least reduce the demand for these offshoring companies? I've seen the code some of them put out. Even chatGPT 3.5 can be better than them.

pjmlp 3y ago

Beware of one wishes for, it starts with offshoring companies, juniors will follow and eventually only the AI druids will code.

thejackgoode 3y ago
prompt shamans, yes

HenryBemis 3y ago

Nope it cannot. I have been using 3.5 to write code. I wrote a 'simple' app (200-300 lines) that although 'simple' it took A LOT of back and forth with the 3.5. In the end I had to spend a couple of days combing through it to add some key features (i.e. set values to zero so you don't see old data, etc.). Basically crude (but smart?) coding (I am not a professional developer). When I finished the code and the app was performing EXACTLY as I wanted (v1.0), I thought to start planning for the v1.1 and when I pasted my code to the 3.5 and asked it to 'work on it on the new features' it was a shitstorm :) Perhaps it was me feeding the requirements 'wrongly', but it was like pulling teeth 'guiding' it to correct even the simplest mistakes.

lacrimacida 3y ago
GPT can sew snippets of code and see patterns but it has no understanding of coding and such. But even without this ability it could work amazingly well if you know what to ask for and accept its limitations.
IggleSniggle 3y ago
This is also how it is with offshoring.
BoorishBears 3y ago
Someone who's not a professional developer was able to take the weakest model OpenAI offers today and get exactly what they wanted for a V1. Have you actually worked with a consultancy? Have you priced out what the back and forth you had with 3.5 would have cost with a real human with a similar level of depth? _ I personally don't think AI's effect on offshoring will be so cut and dry, since it's not like offshore developers can't level up with it too, but your example is showing how badly people are underestimating the impact AI will have on programming.
eddtries 3y ago
I think you'll find the most succinct requirements for a program is the code itself - you can add more and more logic to guide GPT to generate something but eventually you're just writing code yourself anyway.
spaceman_2020 3y ago
This is far too flippantly confident about a piece of tech that's barely a year old, and the inferior version of that. I'm surprised by the inability of people in tech to extrapolate the advancement of this particular tech.
- Semaphor 3y ago
  They replied to this: > Even chatGPT 3.5 can be better than them.
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    I maintain that ChatGPT 3.5 can be better than entry level Infosys engineers.
- eastern 3y ago
  It's like showing up at Kitty Hawk in 1903 and, "You mean this thing can't even fly me to New York? Useless!'
- GabeIsko 3y ago
  I think there is a difference between mastering fluid dynamics to the point where you can have sustained power flight, and building a machine that arranges words next to other words based based problematically in training data. But even if you want to torture this analogy, LLMs are a godsend to techncial service Companies. It's like saying "Oh, planes are faster so I guess people won't be spending as much time traveling and there will be less of it now".
financltravsty 3y ago
Try 4.0. I use it a lot for tedious glue code, and I couldn't be happier to have my time back to focus on more important things.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

gosub100 3y ago

Didn't people ask that back in ~2000, "how soon before offshore employees take our jobs?". The devil is in the details. Can AI solve a linker error and fix a visual studio project file? Sure, if you train it with a million samples. I think the reason AI won't work for anything more than wireframe is that there are too many edge cases to adequately train it.

ChrisMarshallNY 3y ago
> Sure, if you train it with a million samples. I am not an AI guru, but, from my limited understanding, LLMs use trillions of inputs, and that's one reason why they work so well. What we have now, is barely out of the playpen. I am quite sure that specialized LLMs (like troubleshooters) are well under way.

kfk 3y ago

You are looking at this the wrong way. Moving IT to offshoring companies is a risk mitigation strategy, now if critical systems go down it's someone else's problem.

dmatech 3y ago
It's someone else's fault. It's even their problem. But it's still your problem too so long as it affects your business.

tonyedgecombe 3y ago

chatGPT will likely improve the standards of many low skilled developers.

GabeIsko 3y ago

A machine that doesn't actually understand anything, but is able to generate a ton of coherent text anyway? That's an offshore technical service company's dream. What did you say? That it is also complicated to deploy properly? And there is no objective way to measure its success? Christmas keeps coming early.