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How does the author miss the fact that in his graph the self-estimation hovers around the 50th percentile (as expected with random data), whereas in the DK grap
by beinvisible 3y ago
How does the author miss the fact that in his graph the self-estimation hovers around the 50th percentile (as expected with random data), whereas in the DK graph it averages around the 60th to 75th percentile? That is a significant bias.
As a control, the author should have plotted Fig.8, but based on DK's data (or at least estimate how Fig. 8 would look like based on the result in Fig. 3). Then it would have been obvious that the self-estimation error tends more towards overestimation in the lower quartiles than ist does towards underestimation in the higher quartiles - which is exactly what DK's conclusion was.
In essence: this article actually confirms that DK is not just a random statistical artifact.