I don't think anyone can claim certainty on this either way. My view is that in the past the increases in productivity have come in a period of exponential gro

I don't think anyone can claim certainty on this either way. My view is that in the past the increases in productivity have come in a period of exponential growth of the software industry and that growth can absorb the additional productivity. But exponential growth doesn't last forever and if you have a period of a declining / flat / slowly growing software field, a significant enough productivity improvement from tools like LLMs can reduce the overall demand for software development.