Eliezer Yudkowsky, a well-known Bayesian evangelist, gave a simple example at http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/my-bayesian-enl.html http://www.overcomingbi

Eliezer Yudkowsky, a well-known Bayesian evangelist, gave a simple example at http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/my-bayesian-enl.html http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/10/my-bayesian-enl.html .