3 ms·
Nuclear economies of scale, in the very best cases, have been very low. See for example: > The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learnin
by epistasis 3y ago
Nuclear economies of scale, in the very best cases, have been very low. See for example:
> The costs of the French nuclear scale-up: A case of negative learning by doing
> Drawing on largely unknown public records, the paper reveals for the first time both absolute as well as yearly and specific reactor costs and their evolution over time. Its most significant finding is that even this most successful nuclear scale-up was characterized by a substantial escalation of real-term construction costs.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421510003526 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014...
There's a more exhaustive paper (by Lovering, maybe?) where it finds a few cases of economies of scale, e.g. South Korea, but the savings are really tiny compared to a tech with a real learning curve, like battery storage.
If you have any numbers showing that US military reactors have economies of scale, I would love to see it. Not that we could use HEU in civilian reactors, but the construction lessons might be useful. I have never found a fan of US military reactors that could cite the cost numbers, and I have not been successful finding them either.
As for China, I don't know anybody that trusts their cost numbers. I prefer to look at where they are actually spending their money, and their planned nuclear build is absolutely a tiny tiny fraction of what their solar and wind numbers. And the plans for wind and solar are increasing year after year, whereas nuclear plans are staying steady.
- JumpCrisscross 3y agoFrance hasn’t built a plant in decades [1]. Nevertheless, in each deployment series, the last plants cost less than the first. The story you’re highlighting doesn’t dismiss economies of scale, but instead highlights higher-than-expected maintenance costs in fifty-year-old infrastructure. (“Operating costs have remained remarkably flat” because those are experiencing scale effects.) [1] https://www.reuters.com/graphics/EUROPE-ENERGY/NUCLEARPOWER/gdvzwweqkpw/ https://www.reuters.com/graphics/EUROPE-ENERGY/NUCLEARPOWER/...
- epistasis 3y agoThey have been trying to build a plant for a decade, and one could consider them to have finally built Olkiluoto in Finland, in what can only be considered a bit of a disaster. I would like to see the data that in the US that a series of reactors saw economies of scale, and to what degree, and if that can overcome the initial underestimates of 2x-3x that are used to secure an initial decision to build.