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Both analyses seem to agree on one finding: people’s skill at estimating their own ability increases with that skill. It can’t be a purely mathematical artifact
by svnt 3y ago
Both analyses seem to agree on one finding: people’s skill at estimating their own ability increases with that skill. It can’t be a purely mathematical artifact because you would see a tapering at either end, or a narrowing distribution of errors at the bottom end, not just a narrowing toward the top end.
This should be unsurprising for anyone who has become sufficiently skilled at something. Beginners can’t even discern the differences the experts are discussing, and frequently make errors in classes they don’t even understand.
- chiefalchemist 3y agoBeginners, by definition, are guessing 100%. Some will guess high, others low, and the rest in between. But they are all guessing. Perhaps There's a cultural bias to over-estimate their skill? Perhaps there's a nudge in the process of the study that led them to overestimate? The lede isn't that people over-estimate their skill level. The lede is, why would that be as they have nothing else to go on. That is the trigger or triggers? And to say, the more experienced estimate better? Well, duh.