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Naïve take: I’ve always felt like Dunning-Kruger is just the result of the fact that when guessing the value of anything people tend towards some common mean, a
by xanderlewis 3y ago
Naïve take: I’ve always felt like Dunning-Kruger is just the result of the fact that when guessing the value of anything people tend towards some common mean, and so if the true value is low your guess tends to be high, and vice versa. This assumes nothing about what is being guessed, but does assume (perhaps wrongly) that there is a commonly believed mean value and that people tend to imagine they are close to it.
- wavemode 3y agoThat's essentially the plain-language interpretation of what the author of this article is pointing out - when you plot (actual score) against (difference between test score and actual score), you will always find a trend that underperformers overestimate and overperformers underestimate - for the exact reason you state.