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Given the imminent (<10 years) collapse of Xi's China, it's unsurprising that they top the charts in people with means fleeing. We'll be discussing/dealing with

Given the imminent (<10 years) collapse of Xi's China, it's unsurprising that they top the charts in people with means fleeing. We'll be discussing/dealing with the ripples of that for decades. It is sad that so many lives will be lost in the famine that results.

vkou 3y ago
Given that I've been hearing that China's ten years away from collapse for the past 20, ill believe it when I see it. The reason people with means leave isn't because of impending collapse, it's because life is better overseas, today. Or because they got their money in shady ways, and aren't interested in dealing with the consequences of getting caught.
- kiba 3y ago
  It doesn't collapse until it does, and then it becomes really obvious. Nations can last for a long time as long as whatever keep them afloat are still available.
expertentipp 3y ago
China will collapse just the day after the Evergrande's final bankruptcy bankruptcy.
dcsommer 3y ago
That is quite a bold claim. What are the sources or inferences you draw on for this belief?
- Negitivefrags 3y ago
  The main reason often cited for China’s downfall is demographic collapse. They have too many old people and not enough young people. It’s potentially possible that automation can solve this problem but China’s economy has relied on relatively cheap labour for growth and the shift from will be rather alarmingly sudden.
  - hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
    While it may be true that China has/will have "too many old people and not enough young people", it's still quite the stretch to posit 1. China has demographic imbalances 2. ??? 3. "It is sad that so many lives will be lost in the famine that results."
  - csomar 3y ago
    If you want to see China demographics collapse: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons That being said, they can avoid a production collapse by increasing productivity. China is building all kind of infrastructure like crazy. They need to move to first-world status, however, in the next 10 years or so. It’s going to be interesting to watch.
nroets 3y ago
Chinese millionaires are not leaving because they fear instability. They are leaving because they want the luxuries of the West: Suburban lifestyle with cars, freedom to travel, freedom to invest globally, access to the best universities, access to technology like Facebook, Google and latest gadgets.
- gruez 3y ago
  >They are leaving because they want the luxuries of the West: [...] The one you're leaving out is rule of law and not having to living in fear of you or your business being seized by the government when the party feels like it (eg. crackdowns on the tech/tutoring industry, covid lockdowns). That's arguably the "instability" that you're talking about.

vkou 3y ago

Given that I've been hearing that China's ten years away from collapse for the past 20, ill believe it when I see it. The reason people with means leave isn't because of impending collapse, it's because life is better overseas, today. Or because they got their money in shady ways, and aren't interested in dealing with the consequences of getting caught.

kiba 3y ago
It doesn't collapse until it does, and then it becomes really obvious. Nations can last for a long time as long as whatever keep them afloat are still available.

expertentipp 3y ago

China will collapse just the day after the Evergrande's final bankruptcy bankruptcy.

dcsommer 3y ago

That is quite a bold claim. What are the sources or inferences you draw on for this belief?

Negitivefrags 3y ago
The main reason often cited for China’s downfall is demographic collapse. They have too many old people and not enough young people. It’s potentially possible that automation can solve this problem but China’s economy has relied on relatively cheap labour for growth and the shift from will be rather alarmingly sudden.
- hn_throwaway_99 3y ago
  While it may be true that China has/will have "too many old people and not enough young people", it's still quite the stretch to posit 1. China has demographic imbalances 2. ??? 3. "It is sad that so many lives will be lost in the famine that results."
- csomar 3y ago
  If you want to see China demographics collapse: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons https://tradingeconomics.com/china/employed-persons That being said, they can avoid a production collapse by increasing productivity. China is building all kind of infrastructure like crazy. They need to move to first-world status, however, in the next 10 years or so. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

nroets 3y ago

Chinese millionaires are not leaving because they fear instability. They are leaving because they want the luxuries of the West: Suburban lifestyle with cars, freedom to travel, freedom to invest globally, access to the best universities, access to technology like Facebook, Google and latest gadgets.

gruez 3y ago
>They are leaving because they want the luxuries of the West: [...] The one you're leaving out is rule of law and not having to living in fear of you or your business being seized by the government when the party feels like it (eg. crackdowns on the tech/tutoring industry, covid lockdowns). That's arguably the "instability" that you're talking about.