10 ms·
What? The defining trend of the last 5 or so years is the victory of the scaling hypothesis. More scale = more intelligence. GPT-4 is way smarter than 3.5, this
by theptip 3y ago
What? The defining trend of the last 5 or so years is the victory of the scaling hypothesis. More scale = more intelligence. GPT-4 is way smarter than 3.5, this trend is ongoing.
You need more data to utilize more parameters, but folks at the forefront are confident that they are not going to run out of data any time soon.
If you mean “solution to AGI” maybe. But perhaps in-context scratchpads and agent loops will be sufficient to get this architecture to human-level performance, with enough data/parameters. (Sutskever and Hinton have both expressed credulity that the current architectures might get us there.)
All that said, it’s also possible that new architectures will be needed at some point, I’m just pushing back on your claim that we already hit the cliff.