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Yes, that is a concern that you might have if you read the incorrect statements in the article. The article says: Now ERCOT has warned there is a 14.4 percent
by WillPostForFood 3y ago
Yes, that is a concern that you might have if you read the incorrect statements in the article. The article says:
Now ERCOT has warned there is a 14.4 percent chance it will need to employ controlled outages in December, with the estimate rising to 16.8 percent in January.
That's not what the report says. The report runs various models, and in one of the models, there is a 14% chance. That model is based on weather and production assumptions, but does not assign a probability to those assumptions.
- Retric 3y agoMy point was saying there’s a X% chance of any outage doesn’t talk about how likely severe outages will be. It could be there’s a 14% chance of at least minor issues but 2/3 of the time when any problem happens it’s going to be serious. Or alternatively there’s a 14% chance of issues, but only 1/100 of those will result in serious issues. Therefore talking about rolling blackouts as if they would always result in hundreds of dead is inherently misleading.