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The article is not reading the report correctly. It isn't saying there is x% chance of rolling blackouts. It isn't trying to predict the weather in December in

The article is not reading the report correctly. It isn't saying there is x% chance of rolling blackouts. It isn't trying to predict the weather in December in January. It is a series of models, not a predictions. The root issue is coal and natural gas plants being retired. At 8am solar is not generating much, so if a winter storm knocks down wind again, there isn't enough production to meet morning demand. Full report here: https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/10/02/Winter-2023-24-Capacity-Scarcity-Risk-Assessment.pdf https://www.ercot.com/files/docs/2023/10/02/Winter-2023-24-C... In winter, peak demands typically occur before sunrise and after sunset, when solar generation is not available to serve those peaks (except for a negligible amount), making the system dependent on wind generation and dispatchable Resource availability to serve the peak demands. [...] The ERCOT Region has also experienced a large increase in the number of thermal units that are planned to be indefinitely mothballed by the start of the 2023-24 winter Peak Load Season or will operate under a summer-only availability schedule.

Retric 3y ago
The concern is several days of blackouts not just temporary ones at peak demand. A 2 hour long power outage isn’t that big a deal, but it gets worse for every additional hour. 2021: “More than 4.5 million homes and businesses were left without power,[9][10][11][12] some for several days. At least 246 people were killed directly or indirectly,[3] with some estimates as high as 702 killed as a result of the crisis.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis “In 2011, Texas was hit by the Groundhog Day blizzard between February 1 and 5, resulting in rolling blackouts across more than 75% of the state.”
- 38 3y ago
  Dallas here. It was honestly pretty scary. Had a night with no power and it was 4 degrees outside. Finally on the second day I was able to get a hotel room, after searching the entire previous day without luck.
- WillPostForFood 3y ago
  Yes, that is a concern that you might have if you read the incorrect statements in the article. The article says: Now ERCOT has warned there is a 14.4 percent chance it will need to employ controlled outages in December, with the estimate rising to 16.8 percent in January. That's not what the report says. The report runs various models, and in one of the models, there is a 14% chance. That model is based on weather and production assumptions, but does not assign a probability to those assumptions.
  - Retric 3y ago
    My point was saying there’s a X% chance of any outage doesn’t talk about how likely severe outages will be. It could be there’s a 14% chance of at least minor issues but 2/3 of the time when any problem happens it’s going to be serious. Or alternatively there’s a 14% chance of issues, but only 1/100 of those will result in serious issues. Therefore talking about rolling blackouts as if they would always result in hundreds of dead is inherently misleading.
nativeit 3y ago
That’s a convenient argument for coal and gas. It’s too bad Texas is the only place on Earth it ever gets cold, otherwise we might have worked out better options someplace else…
- marcusverus 3y ago
  > That’s a convenient argument for coal and gas. Characterizing a true statement as “convenient for {x}” is low effort weaselspeak. > It’s too bad Texas is the only place on Earth it ever gets cold, otherwise we might have worked out better options someplace else… Snark is a poor substitute for actually knowing what you’re talking about. Texas is more reliant on wind generation than any other state, so of course it is more exposed to this failure mode than others.
- WillPostForFood 3y ago
  Texas pulled 31 gigawatts from renewables this summer. It is what it is, great when it is sunny and windy, not great when it is dark and frozen. https://www.kvue.com/article/tech/science/environment/renewable-energy-record-texas/269-6c1032eb-d8ce-4a9b-8059-1783b8ee6947 https://www.kvue.com/article/tech/science/environment/renewa...

Retric 3y ago

The concern is several days of blackouts not just temporary ones at peak demand. A 2 hour long power outage isn’t that big a deal, but it gets worse for every additional hour. 2021: “More than 4.5 million homes and businesses were left without power,[9][10][11][12] some for several days. At least 246 people were killed directly or indirectly,[3] with some estimates as high as 702 killed as a result of the crisis.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis “In 2011, Texas was hit by the Groundhog Day blizzard between February 1 and 5, resulting in rolling blackouts across more than 75% of the state.”

38 3y ago
Dallas here. It was honestly pretty scary. Had a night with no power and it was 4 degrees outside. Finally on the second day I was able to get a hotel room, after searching the entire previous day without luck.
WillPostForFood 3y ago
Yes, that is a concern that you might have if you read the incorrect statements in the article. The article says: Now ERCOT has warned there is a 14.4 percent chance it will need to employ controlled outages in December, with the estimate rising to 16.8 percent in January. That's not what the report says. The report runs various models, and in one of the models, there is a 14% chance. That model is based on weather and production assumptions, but does not assign a probability to those assumptions.
- Retric 3y ago
  My point was saying there’s a X% chance of any outage doesn’t talk about how likely severe outages will be. It could be there’s a 14% chance of at least minor issues but 2/3 of the time when any problem happens it’s going to be serious. Or alternatively there’s a 14% chance of issues, but only 1/100 of those will result in serious issues. Therefore talking about rolling blackouts as if they would always result in hundreds of dead is inherently misleading.

nativeit 3y ago

That’s a convenient argument for coal and gas. It’s too bad Texas is the only place on Earth it ever gets cold, otherwise we might have worked out better options someplace else…

marcusverus 3y ago
> That’s a convenient argument for coal and gas. Characterizing a true statement as “convenient for {x}” is low effort weaselspeak. > It’s too bad Texas is the only place on Earth it ever gets cold, otherwise we might have worked out better options someplace else… Snark is a poor substitute for actually knowing what you’re talking about. Texas is more reliant on wind generation than any other state, so of course it is more exposed to this failure mode than others.
WillPostForFood 3y ago
Texas pulled 31 gigawatts from renewables this summer. It is what it is, great when it is sunny and windy, not great when it is dark and frozen. https://www.kvue.com/article/tech/science/environment/renewable-energy-record-texas/269-6c1032eb-d8ce-4a9b-8059-1783b8ee6947 https://www.kvue.com/article/tech/science/environment/renewa...