5 ms·

That's a big "if". The cold temperatures in Texas in 2021 was the first such experience in nearly 70 years. It was a very, very extreme condition. https://ww

That's a big "if". The cold temperatures in Texas in 2021 was the first such experience in nearly 70 years. It was a very, very extreme condition. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/02/16/thousands-still-without-power-as-north-texas-reaches-record-low-temperature/ https://www.dallasnews.com/news/weather/2021/02/16/thousands...

Retric 3y ago
It was the most extreme event but hardly the only such event. “In 2011, Texas was hit by the Groundhog Day blizzard between February 1 and 5, resulting in rolling blackouts across more than 75% of the state.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis
- throw555chip 3y ago
  We lived here in 2011, I don't recall any major issues with power that we experienced or what was reported on in any news broadcast. The only thing about weather I remember for 2011 was the excessively hot summer.
  - Retric 3y ago
    It got coverage at the time here’s one story in the middle of it: https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of-events-behind-texas-blackouts/ https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of... Here’s a deep dive if you want the nitty gritty details: https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest...
- vel0city 3y ago
  The 2011 storm was absolutely nothing like the 2021 storm.
  - Retric 3y ago
    2011 was a large scale snowstorm in Texas resulting in rolling blackouts for 5 days. It was very slightly less severe which meant people got power restored in the middle of it thus mitigating most issues, but 2021 only happened because they didn’t actually fix any of the issues revealed in 2021. https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest...
    - vel0city 3y ago
      I lived both events. Some rolling blackouts for some people is massively different than no power for many people for several days. 2021 was way colder for way longer. Sure on paper the same words are being used to describe it, some power outages over a few days due to the cold. But 2021 was way worse both weather-wise and grid-wise. In scale they're pretty much incomparable. In 2011 it got above freezing during the days and melted a lot of the snow and ice. It stayed well below freezing for many days in 2021, more days below freezing in many decades. In 2011 a few friends had their power turn off for a few minutes every few hours for a couple of days. Most people I know never lost power. Stores stayed open. Transit was still operating. They even still managed to play the Superbowl at AT&T stadium. In 2021 everything was shut down for nearly a week. No mail, no shipping services for several days. Stores were without power. Gas stations unable to pump gas because of no power. All the airports shut down. All transit shut down. There was a 100-car pileup on the highway. I don't disagree about if the operators implemented the weatherization recommended in the NERC's report it would have at worst alleviated and at best completely prevented the issues that would have happened, but 2021 was still way worse than 2011. Other than they were both storms in February they're massively different in scales in almost every way.
      - Retric 3y ago
        I don’t disagree with your take, but the absolute magnitude of electricity demand wasn’t that different. Lower temperatures increased heating demand by around 20%, but it’s not like heating was the only thing people use electricity for. Stoplights, water pumps, exterior lighting, etc need power either way. What made it worse was the triple whammy of more generation going online, slightly higher demand, and prioritization of specific areas which didn’t lose power.
baq 3y ago
We've brushed +2C average vs 1900 baseline in the past few days. This means there's much more energy and moisture in the atmosphere, so what has been extreme will be par course. Summers will be hotter, but winters may see lower minimum temperatures, depends on how strong the polar vortex gets and how fast it breaks down - warmer planet means it can break down faster, to a first approximation.
- SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
  Why is 1900 a base line?
  - callalex 3y ago
    It’s a good combination of not too far into the invention of non-renewable fuel sources but recent enough to have extensive and accurate weather observations.
bmitc 3y ago
Climate change.

Retric 3y ago

It was the most extreme event but hardly the only such event. “In 2011, Texas was hit by the Groundhog Day blizzard between February 1 and 5, resulting in rolling blackouts across more than 75% of the state.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Texas_power_crisis

throw555chip 3y ago
We lived here in 2011, I don't recall any major issues with power that we experienced or what was reported on in any news broadcast. The only thing about weather I remember for 2011 was the excessively hot summer.
- Retric 3y ago
  It got coverage at the time here’s one story in the middle of it: https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of-events-behind-texas-blackouts/ https://www.texastribune.org/2011/02/03/the-rolling-chain-of... Here’s a deep dive if you want the nitty gritty details: https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest...
vel0city 3y ago
The 2011 storm was absolutely nothing like the 2021 storm.
- Retric 3y ago
  2011 was a large scale snowstorm in Texas resulting in rolling blackouts for 5 days. It was very slightly less severe which meant people got power restored in the middle of it thus mitigating most issues, but 2021 only happened because they didn’t actually fix any of the issues revealed in 2021. https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest-Cold-Weather-Event.aspx https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Pages/February-2011-Southwest...
  - vel0city 3y ago
    I lived both events. Some rolling blackouts for some people is massively different than no power for many people for several days. 2021 was way colder for way longer. Sure on paper the same words are being used to describe it, some power outages over a few days due to the cold. But 2021 was way worse both weather-wise and grid-wise. In scale they're pretty much incomparable. In 2011 it got above freezing during the days and melted a lot of the snow and ice. It stayed well below freezing for many days in 2021, more days below freezing in many decades. In 2011 a few friends had their power turn off for a few minutes every few hours for a couple of days. Most people I know never lost power. Stores stayed open. Transit was still operating. They even still managed to play the Superbowl at AT&T stadium. In 2021 everything was shut down for nearly a week. No mail, no shipping services for several days. Stores were without power. Gas stations unable to pump gas because of no power. All the airports shut down. All transit shut down. There was a 100-car pileup on the highway. I don't disagree about if the operators implemented the weatherization recommended in the NERC's report it would have at worst alleviated and at best completely prevented the issues that would have happened, but 2021 was still way worse than 2011. Other than they were both storms in February they're massively different in scales in almost every way.
    - Retric 3y ago
      I don’t disagree with your take, but the absolute magnitude of electricity demand wasn’t that different. Lower temperatures increased heating demand by around 20%, but it’s not like heating was the only thing people use electricity for. Stoplights, water pumps, exterior lighting, etc need power either way. What made it worse was the triple whammy of more generation going online, slightly higher demand, and prioritization of specific areas which didn’t lose power.

baq 3y ago

We've brushed +2C average vs 1900 baseline in the past few days. This means there's much more energy and moisture in the atmosphere, so what has been extreme will be par course. Summers will be hotter, but winters may see lower minimum temperatures, depends on how strong the polar vortex gets and how fast it breaks down - warmer planet means it can break down faster, to a first approximation.

SV_BubbleTime 3y ago
Why is 1900 a base line?
- callalex 3y ago
  It’s a good combination of not too far into the invention of non-renewable fuel sources but recent enough to have extensive and accurate weather observations.

bmitc 3y ago

Climate change.