3 ms·

There's been a lot of progress, but sadly the GPEI is still at least a decade from eradication if they are agressive... and already starting to slow down. They

There's been a lot of progress, but sadly the GPEI is still at least a decade from eradication if they are agressive... and already starting to slow down. They really need one last push, and it's becoming clear that it's not going to come from Gates or the WHO. Dealing with vaccine-derived polio is going to be the big issue for the next decade, but projections suggest that type 1 polio will go out of control if OPV cessation happens on the desired timeline and the status quo is kept up until then. If Ken Griffin or Jim Simons (or any hedge fund guy) wants some extra karma or has beef with Bill Gates, this is probably an $X billion project in total, but it seems to need someone who can out-asshole Afghan warlords and is willing to crack a few skulls to get it done.

riffraff 3y ago
> it's becoming clear that it's not going to come from Gates or the WHO. Wasn't the gates foundation a big promoter of this? I thought it was one of their main focuses.
- pclmulqdq 3y ago
  Publicly, the Gates foundation wants to take credit for polio eradication, but they never seem to want to actually spend the money on the things that are required for polio eradication. If you look at the modeling results, Gates and the WHO manage to do less than the minimum required to have a decent chance of "turning the corner," while also doing a lot of fun science projects like making a new version of OPV. Gates himself moves between a lot of different "current things" - it was polio 15 years ago, then it became malaria, and now it seems to be the climate (with a brief stopover on COVID).