4 ms·

In Twitter's case, what is the hypergrowth story here? I don't see any revolutions coming from Twitter's business model that haven't already occurred in the pas

In Twitter's case, what is the hypergrowth story here? I don't see any revolutions coming from Twitter's business model that haven't already occurred in the past decade. Whereas for something like space flight or FSD or novel therapeutics I can see the large potential upside

toomuchtodo 3y ago
I’m simply stating what I believe to be Elon’s mental model. Reality is different, as you mention, with regards to Twitter’s fundamentals considering value destruction to date ($44B->~$16B) and potential future revenue trajectory. https://www.axios.com/2023/10/29/fidelity-twitter-x-value-elon-musk https://www.axios.com/2023/10/29/fidelity-twitter-x-value-el...
jondwillis 3y ago
Hypergrowth of influence, maybe. Twitter is brimming with even more **riding Elon fanboys than it was a year ago. I don’t see the scummy ads every five posts/comments paying Elon back for his inflated purchase anytime soon.
mickdarling 3y ago
For Twitter, his plan is the opposite of hyper growth. He doesn't just plan on bankrupting it, i.e. making Twitter's debts unmanageable for its revenue and assets. No, his plan is to actually ruin the company and any of its remaining brand identity. He has to destroy all potential value there, so nobody else can pick up the pieces and show how much of an idiot he's been. Also, that has the added value for his investors that no one will be using a revived Twitter to instigate any revolutions in say...somewhere in the Middle East.
- gala8y 3y ago
  Yesterday there was an article (or a rant) here which was flagged. https://gkeenan.co/avgb/an-inordinate-amount-of-our-attention-is-afforded-to-absurdly-rich-children https://gkeenan.co/avgb/an-inordinate-amount-of-our-attentio... Author describes Musk like this: "Dude will literally drop $44 billion to buy a website instead of going to therapy.", which is a funny way to say that he _should_ go to therapy, with which I agree. Oh, and the whole thing is about OAI.
- rchaud 3y ago
  Have you seen Musk's Twitter lately? Any revolution being instigated online will be intended for America.
jrflowers 3y ago
> In Twitter's case, what is the hypergrowth story here? The revolutionary strategy is revenue sharing. Before people had to post stuff like “if the 14 words was a guy I’d let him move in with my wife (thinking emoji x3)” for free and now they get paid for the engagement that that generates
- dilyevsky 3y ago
  So twitter is now collecting even less revenue for what exactly?
  - jrflowers 3y ago
    Critical nineteenth amendment discourse
aga98mtl 3y ago
The plan is to turn Twitter into a SuperApp like WeChat. WeChat is enormous in China because it combines social with payment. It is a proof of who you are and a way to pay. This does not exist currently in the West.
- NicoJuicy 3y ago
  I doubt lawmakers want x to be that tool.
- Grimblewald 3y ago
  But in a way google already fills that role? It does ID, payment, social media etc. Several other companies fill various aspects of that void as well, so there really isnt a void to grow into explosivly. Even if twitter has weechat capabilities, then it still is unlikely to see major uptake. Personally id avoid it simply because elon is at the helm and elon is a conman. Additional concerns the average citizen would have is the increased reach this would have on them and their life. We are currently dealing with a significant threat to the longevity of social media in gen. pop. We're all netizens here and so are unlikely to stop living part of our life online, but your gen pop folks are less and less interested. Dumb phones are becoming increasingly popular, leaving social media entierly is also increasingly popular. So much so that mainstream popular icons for younger generations like tom holland take a public stand against social media and make a point of leaving it. If that is a move that isn't career suicide for a celebrity then it has to have pretty good mainstream support. I just dont see how massive broad adoption of a western weechat is going to happen without people being forced to adpot it.
- yuppie_scum 3y ago
  We have ways to pay already.
  - LargeTomato 3y ago
    They aren't integrated to the same level as we chat. We chat is like Facebook, Venmo, what's app, door dash, and yelp combined into one app.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

I’m simply stating what I believe to be Elon’s mental model. Reality is different, as you mention, with regards to Twitter’s fundamentals considering value destruction to date ($44B->~$16B) and potential future revenue trajectory. https://www.axios.com/2023/10/29/fidelity-twitter-x-value-elon-musk https://www.axios.com/2023/10/29/fidelity-twitter-x-value-el...

jondwillis 3y ago

Hypergrowth of influence, maybe. Twitter is brimming with even more **riding Elon fanboys than it was a year ago. I don’t see the scummy ads every five posts/comments paying Elon back for his inflated purchase anytime soon.

mickdarling 3y ago

For Twitter, his plan is the opposite of hyper growth. He doesn't just plan on bankrupting it, i.e. making Twitter's debts unmanageable for its revenue and assets. No, his plan is to actually ruin the company and any of its remaining brand identity. He has to destroy all potential value there, so nobody else can pick up the pieces and show how much of an idiot he's been. Also, that has the added value for his investors that no one will be using a revived Twitter to instigate any revolutions in say...somewhere in the Middle East.

gala8y 3y ago
Yesterday there was an article (or a rant) here which was flagged. https://gkeenan.co/avgb/an-inordinate-amount-of-our-attention-is-afforded-to-absurdly-rich-children https://gkeenan.co/avgb/an-inordinate-amount-of-our-attentio... Author describes Musk like this: "Dude will literally drop $44 billion to buy a website instead of going to therapy.", which is a funny way to say that he _should_ go to therapy, with which I agree. Oh, and the whole thing is about OAI.
rchaud 3y ago
Have you seen Musk's Twitter lately? Any revolution being instigated online will be intended for America.

jrflowers 3y ago

> In Twitter's case, what is the hypergrowth story here? The revolutionary strategy is revenue sharing. Before people had to post stuff like “if the 14 words was a guy I’d let him move in with my wife (thinking emoji x3)” for free and now they get paid for the engagement that that generates

dilyevsky 3y ago
So twitter is now collecting even less revenue for what exactly?
- jrflowers 3y ago
  Critical nineteenth amendment discourse

aga98mtl 3y ago

The plan is to turn Twitter into a SuperApp like WeChat. WeChat is enormous in China because it combines social with payment. It is a proof of who you are and a way to pay. This does not exist currently in the West.

NicoJuicy 3y ago
I doubt lawmakers want x to be that tool.
Grimblewald 3y ago
But in a way google already fills that role? It does ID, payment, social media etc. Several other companies fill various aspects of that void as well, so there really isnt a void to grow into explosivly. Even if twitter has weechat capabilities, then it still is unlikely to see major uptake. Personally id avoid it simply because elon is at the helm and elon is a conman. Additional concerns the average citizen would have is the increased reach this would have on them and their life. We are currently dealing with a significant threat to the longevity of social media in gen. pop. We're all netizens here and so are unlikely to stop living part of our life online, but your gen pop folks are less and less interested. Dumb phones are becoming increasingly popular, leaving social media entierly is also increasingly popular. So much so that mainstream popular icons for younger generations like tom holland take a public stand against social media and make a point of leaving it. If that is a move that isn't career suicide for a celebrity then it has to have pretty good mainstream support. I just dont see how massive broad adoption of a western weechat is going to happen without people being forced to adpot it.
yuppie_scum 3y ago
We have ways to pay already.
- LargeTomato 3y ago
  They aren't integrated to the same level as we chat. We chat is like Facebook, Venmo, what's app, door dash, and yelp combined into one app.