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There will come a day when 50% of jobs are being done by AI, major decisions are being made by AI, we're all riding around in cars driven by AI, people are havi

by qgin 3y ago

There will come a day when 50% of jobs are being done by AI, major decisions are being made by AI, we're all riding around in cars driven by AI, people are having romantic relationships with AI... and we'll STILL be debating whether what has been created is really AGI. AGI will forever be the next threshold, then the next, then the next until one day we'll realize that we passed the line years before.

ignoramous 3y ago
> we're all riding around in cars driven by AI, people are having romantic relationships with AI... ASI (domain-specific superintelligence) and AGI (general intelligence) are different things. ASI already exists in multiple forms, AGI doesn't.
- goodluckchuck 3y ago
  > AGI doesn't AGI hasn’t been publicly demonstrated and made available to the masses… but it may exist secretly in one or more labs. It may even be being used in the field under pseudonyms, informing decisions, etc.
sweezyjeezy 3y ago
"Is this AGI"? doesn't seem like a useful question for precisely this reason - it's ill-defined and hard to prove or falsify. The pertinent questions are more along the lines of "what effect will this have on society", "what are the risks of this technology" etc.
quickthrower2 3y ago
The frog might be boiled slowly. One day we are replacing parts of our brain with AI. Find it hard to remember names? We can fix that for $20/m plus some telemetry.
lexandstuff 3y ago
Agreed. To me, GPT-4 is an AGI: it knows how to cook, write code, make songs, navigate international tax law, write business plans, etc. Could it be more intelligent? Sure. Is it a capable general intelligence? 100%.
- zarzavat 3y ago
  GPT-4 still makes plenty of mistakes when programming that reveal that it doesn’t fully understand what it’s doing. It’s very good, but it doesn’t reach the level of human intellect. Yet. It is A and gets the G but fails somewhat on the I of AGI.
  - kgeist 3y ago
    Humans also make mistakes, all the time.
    - zarzavat 3y ago
      Yes, but we expect an AGI to not make mistakes that a human wouldn’t make. This is easier to see with AI art. The artwork is very impressive but if the hand has the wrong number of fingers or the lettering is hilariously wrong, there’s a tendency to dismiss it. Nobody complains that dall-e can’t produce artwork on par with Da Vinci because that’s not something we expect humans to do either. For us to start considering these AIs “intelligent” they first need to nail what we consider “the basics”, no matter how hard those basics are for a machine.
lakengodott 3y ago
Reminds me of a short story I read in which humans outsource more and more of their decision making to AI’s, so that even if there are no AGI’s loose in the world, it’s unclear how much of the world is being run by them: https://solquy.substack.com/p/120722-nudge https://solquy.substack.com/p/120722-nudge I also think it’s funny how people rarely bring up the Turing Test anymore. That used to be THE test that was brought up in mainstream re: AGI, and now it’s no longer relevant. Could be moving goalposts, could also just be that we think about AGI differently now.
- KaoruAoiShiho 3y ago
  GPT-4 doesn't pass the turing test, it's frequently wrong and nonsensical in an inhuman way. But I think this new "agi" probably does from the sound of it, and it would be the real deal.
  - swalsh 3y ago
    Teachers use websites to try and detect if AI wrote essays (and often it gets it wrong, and they believe it) we've defacto passed it.
    - KaoruAoiShiho 3y ago
      Turing test is not do AI sound like humans some of the time, but is it possible to tell an AI is AI just by speaking with it. The answer is definitely yes, but it's not by casual conversation, but by asking weird logic problems it has tremendous problems solving and will give totally nonsensical inhuman answers to.
      - Davidzheng 3y ago
        I'm not convinced. Openai specifically trained their models in a way that is not trying to pass the Turing test. I suspect current models are more than capable of passing Turing tests. For example, i suspect most humans will give nonsense answers to many logic problems!
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
riku_iki 3y ago
> day when 50% of jobs are being done by AI By OpenAI definition 50% is not enough to qualify for AGI, it has to be "nearly any economically valuable work"
- Davidzheng 3y ago
  Not sure it has to replace plumbers to be AGI
  - riku_iki 3y ago
    maybe they ment to say intellectual work/knowledge work.
- qgin 3y ago
  It would be hard to find a single human who could handle nearly any/all economically valuable work. Getting good enough to get paid in one field is an achievement.

by qgin 3y ago

ignoramous 3y ago

> we're all riding around in cars driven by AI, people are having romantic relationships with AI... ASI (domain-specific superintelligence) and AGI (general intelligence) are different things. ASI already exists in multiple forms, AGI doesn't.

goodluckchuck 3y ago
> AGI doesn't AGI hasn’t been publicly demonstrated and made available to the masses… but it may exist secretly in one or more labs. It may even be being used in the field under pseudonyms, informing decisions, etc.

sweezyjeezy 3y ago

"Is this AGI"? doesn't seem like a useful question for precisely this reason - it's ill-defined and hard to prove or falsify. The pertinent questions are more along the lines of "what effect will this have on society", "what are the risks of this technology" etc.

quickthrower2 3y ago

The frog might be boiled slowly. One day we are replacing parts of our brain with AI. Find it hard to remember names? We can fix that for $20/m plus some telemetry.

lexandstuff 3y ago

Agreed. To me, GPT-4 is an AGI: it knows how to cook, write code, make songs, navigate international tax law, write business plans, etc. Could it be more intelligent? Sure. Is it a capable general intelligence? 100%.

zarzavat 3y ago
GPT-4 still makes plenty of mistakes when programming that reveal that it doesn’t fully understand what it’s doing. It’s very good, but it doesn’t reach the level of human intellect. Yet. It is A and gets the G but fails somewhat on the I of AGI.
- kgeist 3y ago
  Humans also make mistakes, all the time.
  - zarzavat 3y ago
    Yes, but we expect an AGI to not make mistakes that a human wouldn’t make. This is easier to see with AI art. The artwork is very impressive but if the hand has the wrong number of fingers or the lettering is hilariously wrong, there’s a tendency to dismiss it. Nobody complains that dall-e can’t produce artwork on par with Da Vinci because that’s not something we expect humans to do either. For us to start considering these AIs “intelligent” they first need to nail what we consider “the basics”, no matter how hard those basics are for a machine.

lakengodott 3y ago

Reminds me of a short story I read in which humans outsource more and more of their decision making to AI’s, so that even if there are no AGI’s loose in the world, it’s unclear how much of the world is being run by them: https://solquy.substack.com/p/120722-nudge https://solquy.substack.com/p/120722-nudge I also think it’s funny how people rarely bring up the Turing Test anymore. That used to be THE test that was brought up in mainstream re: AGI, and now it’s no longer relevant. Could be moving goalposts, could also just be that we think about AGI differently now.

KaoruAoiShiho 3y ago
GPT-4 doesn't pass the turing test, it's frequently wrong and nonsensical in an inhuman way. But I think this new "agi" probably does from the sound of it, and it would be the real deal.
- swalsh 3y ago
  Teachers use websites to try and detect if AI wrote essays (and often it gets it wrong, and they believe it) we've defacto passed it.
  - KaoruAoiShiho 3y ago
    Turing test is not do AI sound like humans some of the time, but is it possible to tell an AI is AI just by speaking with it. The answer is definitely yes, but it's not by casual conversation, but by asking weird logic problems it has tremendous problems solving and will give totally nonsensical inhuman answers to.
    - Davidzheng 3y ago
      I'm not convinced. Openai specifically trained their models in a way that is not trying to pass the Turing test. I suspect current models are more than capable of passing Turing tests. For example, i suspect most humans will give nonsense answers to many logic problems!

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

riku_iki 3y ago

> day when 50% of jobs are being done by AI By OpenAI definition 50% is not enough to qualify for AGI, it has to be "nearly any economically valuable work"

Davidzheng 3y ago
Not sure it has to replace plumbers to be AGI
- riku_iki 3y ago
  maybe they ment to say intellectual work/knowledge work.
qgin 3y ago
It would be hard to find a single human who could handle nearly any/all economically valuable work. Getting good enough to get paid in one field is an achievement.