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My guess is if you see AGI as inevitable, then every step towards it is seen as groundbreaking with unprecedented future impact on humanity.
by fullshark 3y ago
My guess is if you see AGI as inevitable, then every step towards it is seen as groundbreaking with unprecedented future impact on humanity.
- falcor84 3y agoI'm not following - if you think AGI is uncertain, shouldn't you actually be more surprised? I mean, looking at it from a bayesian lens, the lower your prior, the more (in absolute percentage points) you would need to adjust it based on new supporting evidence, no?
- fullshark 3y agoIf you think AGI is uncertain, then maybe it's just an improvement on a paradigm that is near its end state: amazing autocomplete.
- falcor84 3y agoEnlighten me then - what is this limit point of "amazing autocomplete"?
- falcor84 3y agoTo clarify, I'm really curious about this question. Is there some limit to autocomplete that falls short of continuing a prompt such as: "The following is a literate programming compendium on how to stimulate the human brain in software ..."
- fullshark 3y agoI don't have a good answer for your question, I was just making the point that if you think this is a step toward a dead end and not AGI your attitude regarding the step changes.
- falcor84 3y agoI understood that. What I meant to say (apologies if that was unclear) is that if you think we're getting close to a dead end, you should be more rather than less surprised at signs of significant further progress, no? Continuing with the physical movement metaphor, if I believe that the train I'm on will stop at the next station, I'll be more surprised at the fact that we're still accelerating, compared to the person next to me who's not sure if this is a local train or an express train. Generally speaking, the lower my prior probability of continued progress, the more I should be surprised by the lack of slowdown.