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US EV sales are up almost 60% year over year! It's the opposite of a downturn. US legacy auto is really hurting on EV sales though, because of lack of product,

by rnk 3y ago

US EV sales are up almost 60% year over year! It's the opposite of a downturn. US legacy auto is really hurting on EV sales though, because of lack of product, higher prices even more unattractive because of high interest rates, low production, plus price reductions by Tesla and other more nimble companies are making the legacy auto lose out. Losers: Ford, GM, Toyota Winners: Tesla, Kia, Rivian. Many euro brands doing pretty well in this transition, way better than Detroit. Near future killer car: Volvo EX30, a ~$35k smaller suv type car, also available with awd etc. This is the car that big auto should make. The Tesla Y is in this class too. [1]. I wish I was an auto analyst, it seems more fun than being a software engineer at times. Guess when you think internal combustion (ICE) cars will reach their max annual sales? It's a trick question because it happened in 2019! Since then the growth has been in EVs. Tesla is almost at 2 million cars a year now, world wide. That "ev sales are going down" is an amazing bit of incorrect propaganda. How about up ~60% year over year [2] What's happening is legacy auto is doing terrible and losing market share, either not making enough vehicles (gm & ford, toyota), dealers marking them up too much over list price (gm, ford, toyota), etc. GM was moving everything to a new battery pack technology (ultium) but they have unclear problems and they can't make the battery packs at scale; gm has enormous demand for the huge hummer and they made fewer in the first half of the year than last year. Toyota can't make a decent ev (it's on purpose). Japanese brands haven't done a good job overall on making attractive EVs and they are losing major market share in China, because China loves EVs. European EV sales are also growing. 1. https://electrek.co/2023/11/05/volvo-ex30-review/ https://electrek.co/2023/11/05/volvo-ex30-review/ 2. https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1810g57/us_bev_sales_up_57_in_q2_2023_rising_inventories/ https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1810g57/u....

bradknowles 3y ago
That $30k Volvo is actually a Geely and just re-branded as a Volvo. Because the Chinese company Geely owns Volvo. And Geely may be a great Chinese car manufacturer for Chinese customers, but not for US customers. In the U.S., the latest reliability survey shows that Tesla trails all the other U.S. vehicle manufacturers with over 100 customer reported flaws per 1k vehicles sold. However, in China, they have the same flaw rate, but this now puts them way ahead of any other manufacturer in China -- I think the average there is like 300 flaws per thousand. So, Geely is not the direction I would go. The new Polestar vehicles, maybe. Depends on who did all the design and engineering -- was it Volvo or Geely?

by rnk 3y ago

bradknowles 3y ago

That $30k Volvo is actually a Geely and just re-branded as a Volvo. Because the Chinese company Geely owns Volvo. And Geely may be a great Chinese car manufacturer for Chinese customers, but not for US customers. In the U.S., the latest reliability survey shows that Tesla trails all the other U.S. vehicle manufacturers with over 100 customer reported flaws per 1k vehicles sold. However, in China, they have the same flaw rate, but this now puts them way ahead of any other manufacturer in China -- I think the average there is like 300 flaws per thousand. So, Geely is not the direction I would go. The new Polestar vehicles, maybe. Depends on who did all the design and engineering -- was it Volvo or Geely?