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I do not expect AI to have anywhere near the economic impact of the entire software industry.

• mg 3y ago
  You don't expect the number of use cases for software to double with AI?
  • azernik 3y ago
    1. No 2. The AWS-equivalents in that space is not going to capture all the value, as OP assumes for Microsoft by multiplying their estimate of total value by expected market share.
    • mg 3y ago
      To me it seems that every task done by humans will be supported or even replaced by AI. I already see it happening, just 2 years into the new LLM area: Programming, designing, writing, research, driving. How could that not result in a doubling in software use? I did not assume that one player is going to capture all value. I stated the number for 10% and 90% market share. Today, AWS has 30% market share of cloud computing and Google has 90% market share of search. Assuming the market leader in AI will achieve between 10 and 90 percent market share seems reasonable to me.
      • azernik 3y ago
        AWS has 30% share of cloud computing. They do not collect 30% of the profit brought in by all companies using cloud computing, but only their infrastructure bills. You were assuming that Microsoft will pull in 100% of the profit of that 10-90% market share you hypothesize for them, which is not how selling infrastructure services works.
        • mg 3y ago
          No. I did not mention profit at all. Only revenue.
          • azernik 3y ago
            Revenue is generally greater than profit. AWS does not pull in anywhere near all the revenue that its users generate; its cash flow is a tiny proportion of what its customers generate.