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> But one with the brightness of the BOAT is estimated to come around once every 10,000 years. How is this estimated, given that they're looking for those only
by guenthert 3y ago
> But one with the brightness of the BOAT is estimated to come around once every 10,000 years.
How is this estimated, given that they're looking for those only the last sixty years or so (afaiu, this event didn't leave an observable trace afterwards)?
- denton-scratch 3y ago"Is estimated" is pretty weak. Estimated by whom? Since the estimate is "with the brightness of BOAT", they must have made this estimate since BOAT. It follows that the estimate must be based on a single event. I don't like the writing in phys.org.
- jraph 3y agoIt is the passive tense invisibility cloak. A fantastic tool. A related cousin of the "under the carpet" magic broom.
- _Microft 3y agoSuch a prediction requires a model of the underlying processes or at least distribution of values from observations. The distribution of values in a dataset might suggest that the process producing these values does so in a manner consistent with e.g. a gaussian distribution with a given expectation value and standard variation. Now if a particular value is observed, this model can be used to estimate the probability of that value occuring. If it is also known how often these events happen per year then it's possible to say how many years of observation would be needed to observe such a value with probability of e.g. 50%, 95%, or whatever threshold you choose.