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Toyota have been saying “just wait a few more years to buy an EV, we have revolutionary new battery tech around the corner that will be MUCH cheaper, MUCH light

by grecy 3y ago

Toyota have been saying “just wait a few more years to buy an EV, we have revolutionary new battery tech around the corner that will be MUCH cheaper, MUCH lighter and MUCH faster to charge” for at least 10 years now. Every time I see the headline and resulting conversation on major auto news websites I see hundreds of people say it’s not worth getting an EV now with such better tech around the corner, and that waiting is best. I find it very hard not to think Toyota is intentionally lying to stop people buying EVs at all because they simply don’t make them (yet/ever). Same goes for Toyota hydrogen cars. Whenever they get mentioned hundreds of comments get suckered into thinking EV infrastructure is just not good enough and never will be, but somehow magically hydrogen just will be “in a few years”. The idea the world will ever have hydrogen infrastructure that is even remotely as good as the EV infrastructure we have today is laughable. That’s trillions of dollars and decades away at very best.

willmadden 3y ago
Hydrogen infrastructure is a nightmare and requires you to store massive amounts of explosive gas under pressure. The energy density per gallon/liter sucks compared to gasoline. It was a bad bet and will never see mass adoption. Hybrids, however, do make sense right now. Lithium ion batteries don't have the range (especially under load) and don't recharge as fast as filling up a tank. If you use fast chargers, the battery life also diminishes, and the replacement costs are ridiculous. Those aren't features which allow for mainstream adoption. Too much consumer behavior change is required.
- grecy 3y ago
  I’d wager for 75% of vehicle owners the range and charge speed of the EVs on the market today meet their needs perfectly. Remember, the average person in the US only drives 37 miles per day [1] [1] https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year/ https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year...
  - worthless-trash 3y ago
    I don't know the name for it, but I think there is a logic error in their math. The average distance you do drive on days you drive, is what matters.
    - willmadden 3y ago
      It's not the average distance you drive, it's the maximum distance you drive. Most people are not going to select an EV as their primary vehicle until they can make that infrequent but important road trip without charge anxiety.
    - tonyedgecombe 3y ago
      I'm willing to bet most people drive on most days.
      - brianwawok 3y ago
        WFH and everyone in NYC disagree.
    - grecy 3y ago
      You could double it and double it again, and essentially all EVs for sale today still have minimum of double that range. EV range is not a problem for the very vast majority of drivers, we just keep being told it is by the companies that are making a lot of money from the status quo and want it to continue
      - ianai 3y ago
        Really depends on where the car sells. In the EU, todays EVs probably have plenty of range. In the US, 300 miles is just not going to cut it for many people far too often. Look at this comparison. And hour+ commutes are far from unheard of in the US. (Common within cities even due to traffic.) http://www.comparea.org/USA48+EU http://www.comparea.org/USA48+EU
        3y ago
- iNerdier 3y ago
  I would counter that it won’t see adoption in cars but will in heavy machinery. It’s a much better proposition for hauling huge loads than tonnes of batteries are (assuming you can’t use a train in the first place) or for things like large excavators. It also removes some of the need for regular filling stations along roads etc. if you can centre the infrastructure around where fleets are based and return to for more cargo.
  - shiroiuma 3y ago
    I'm wondering if it would make sense for heavy trucks that don't have to travel far, like trucks used for shorter or medium-length trips to move cargo. Things like moving containers to/from shipping terminals and warehouses, or moving loads between cities/towns where cargo trains aren't economical.
    - willmadden 3y ago
      This Canadian logging trucker has many excellent points. Apologies, it's TikTok. https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246661?lang=en https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246...
- redserk 3y ago
  I disagree with the notion that customer behavior change is required. This position sounds like unsubstantiated fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For the vast majority of days, the car gets driven to work then returned home. As the driver leaves the car, they connect an electrical cable into the side of the car. The biggest change here is the consumer no longer needs to make a stop out of their way to refuel their vehicle and will now have to take an extra 5 seconds to plug a car in. On longer trips, there is a bit more change I’ll admit, but most EVs will tell you where your next stop is and let you see the nearby amenities. Need to stop sooner? Tap a closer charger and it’ll replan accordingly. This is a change from reading highway exit signs for gas stations but hardly an impediment. And some states are adding EV badges to the highway signs. Lastly there’s the question of what to do with the vehicle while fast charging. Probably the biggest change that’ll only impact people 4-8 times a year, and that’s what to do while charging. It’s simple: plug in the car, then walk over to a nearby restaurant and grab breakfast/lunch. This is certainly a deviation from powering through a 8 hour road-trip as fast as humanly possible, but driving without breaks is dangerous.

by grecy 3y ago

willmadden 3y ago

Hydrogen infrastructure is a nightmare and requires you to store massive amounts of explosive gas under pressure. The energy density per gallon/liter sucks compared to gasoline. It was a bad bet and will never see mass adoption. Hybrids, however, do make sense right now. Lithium ion batteries don't have the range (especially under load) and don't recharge as fast as filling up a tank. If you use fast chargers, the battery life also diminishes, and the replacement costs are ridiculous. Those aren't features which allow for mainstream adoption. Too much consumer behavior change is required.

grecy 3y ago
I’d wager for 75% of vehicle owners the range and charge speed of the EVs on the market today meet their needs perfectly. Remember, the average person in the US only drives 37 miles per day [1] [1] https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year/ https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/average-miles-driven-per-year...
- worthless-trash 3y ago
  I don't know the name for it, but I think there is a logic error in their math. The average distance you do drive on days you drive, is what matters.
  - willmadden 3y ago
    It's not the average distance you drive, it's the maximum distance you drive. Most people are not going to select an EV as their primary vehicle until they can make that infrequent but important road trip without charge anxiety.
  - tonyedgecombe 3y ago
    I'm willing to bet most people drive on most days.
    - brianwawok 3y ago
      WFH and everyone in NYC disagree.
  - grecy 3y ago
    You could double it and double it again, and essentially all EVs for sale today still have minimum of double that range. EV range is not a problem for the very vast majority of drivers, we just keep being told it is by the companies that are making a lot of money from the status quo and want it to continue
    - ianai 3y ago
      Really depends on where the car sells. In the EU, todays EVs probably have plenty of range. In the US, 300 miles is just not going to cut it for many people far too often. Look at this comparison. And hour+ commutes are far from unheard of in the US. (Common within cities even due to traffic.) http://www.comparea.org/USA48+EU http://www.comparea.org/USA48+EU
      - 3y ago
iNerdier 3y ago
I would counter that it won’t see adoption in cars but will in heavy machinery. It’s a much better proposition for hauling huge loads than tonnes of batteries are (assuming you can’t use a train in the first place) or for things like large excavators. It also removes some of the need for regular filling stations along roads etc. if you can centre the infrastructure around where fleets are based and return to for more cargo.
- shiroiuma 3y ago
  I'm wondering if it would make sense for heavy trucks that don't have to travel far, like trucks used for shorter or medium-length trips to move cargo. Things like moving containers to/from shipping terminals and warehouses, or moving loads between cities/towns where cargo trains aren't economical.
  - willmadden 3y ago
    This Canadian logging trucker has many excellent points. Apologies, it's TikTok. https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246661?lang=en https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246...
redserk 3y ago
I disagree with the notion that customer behavior change is required. This position sounds like unsubstantiated fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For the vast majority of days, the car gets driven to work then returned home. As the driver leaves the car, they connect an electrical cable into the side of the car. The biggest change here is the consumer no longer needs to make a stop out of their way to refuel their vehicle and will now have to take an extra 5 seconds to plug a car in. On longer trips, there is a bit more change I’ll admit, but most EVs will tell you where your next stop is and let you see the nearby amenities. Need to stop sooner? Tap a closer charger and it’ll replan accordingly. This is a change from reading highway exit signs for gas stations but hardly an impediment. And some states are adding EV badges to the highway signs. Lastly there’s the question of what to do with the vehicle while fast charging. Probably the biggest change that’ll only impact people 4-8 times a year, and that’s what to do while charging. It’s simple: plug in the car, then walk over to a nearby restaurant and grab breakfast/lunch. This is certainly a deviation from powering through a 8 hour road-trip as fast as humanly possible, but driving without breaks is dangerous.