3 ms·

MSFT doesn't have the culture to continue development at the same rate. So even if it had everything - people, code, weights, office plants, all of it - it's st

MSFT doesn't have the culture to continue development at the same rate. So even if it had everything - people, code, weights, office plants, all of it - it's still not going to be able to do much it in the future. GPT5 might keep the momentum going for a while, but that's going to be it. MSFT actually is fighting for its life. GPT4 is an intriguingly useful curiosity, Later GPTs had the potential to be culturally, politically, financially and technically revolutionary. That likely won't happen now. We'll get some kind of enshittified prohibitively expensive mediocrity instead.

jacquesm 3y ago
> MSFT actually is fighting for its life. Ok. That's funny. But if this turns out to be the piece of the apple that MS ends up choking on then maybe it was all worth it? Could someone suggest Adam D'Angelo for the boards of Facebook, Google and Twitter please. Oh, wait... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo
- brandall10 3y ago
  And I repeat - MSFT is up over 50% since investing $10B in OpenAI. That happened this year. This is the most important thing on their plate. Of the slate of $1-3T tech companies the question of "where can we go from here?"... this is where, and the winners will be the first $10T enterprises.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    Yes, and they just got for the bargain basement price of 13 billion a 90 billion bonus. They come out smelling like roses already and it can only get better, not worse for them going forward.
    - brandall10 3y ago
      Not necessarily. There will be a period of uncertainty/instability that competitors can emerge and capitalize on. Say the whole crew comes along, it could still be several months and maybe all sorts of legal wrangling making things difficult. But more likely there will be splintering that will benefit Google, Anthropic, Meta, Apple, esp. if comp is there, and that could be catastrophic. I read this whole situation as putting pressure on OpenAI to come to their senses and quick.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        > I read this whole situation as putting pressure on OpenAI to come to their senses and quick. That we are in violent agreement on, the board should negotiate to be allowed to flee indemnified for the fall-out of their action. But if they do not OpenAI is done for, Anthropic has already indicated they are not going to be there to pick up the pieces, and Google and Meta will try to poach as many employees as they can by being 'not Microsoft' (which has a fair chance of working). So there is damage, but it isn't over yet and for the moment Microsoft looks as though they hold the most and the most valuable cards already. After all they already have 49%. Another 2% as a suing-for-peace pacifier and they're as good as kings.
brandall10 3y ago
I agree. But the message is to appeal to shareholders that they have the situation under control.

jacquesm 3y ago

> MSFT actually is fighting for its life. Ok. That's funny. But if this turns out to be the piece of the apple that MS ends up choking on then maybe it was all worth it? Could someone suggest Adam D'Angelo for the boards of Facebook, Google and Twitter please. Oh, wait... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo

brandall10 3y ago
And I repeat - MSFT is up over 50% since investing $10B in OpenAI. That happened this year. This is the most important thing on their plate. Of the slate of $1-3T tech companies the question of "where can we go from here?"... this is where, and the winners will be the first $10T enterprises.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  Yes, and they just got for the bargain basement price of 13 billion a 90 billion bonus. They come out smelling like roses already and it can only get better, not worse for them going forward.
  - brandall10 3y ago
    Not necessarily. There will be a period of uncertainty/instability that competitors can emerge and capitalize on. Say the whole crew comes along, it could still be several months and maybe all sorts of legal wrangling making things difficult. But more likely there will be splintering that will benefit Google, Anthropic, Meta, Apple, esp. if comp is there, and that could be catastrophic. I read this whole situation as putting pressure on OpenAI to come to their senses and quick.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      > I read this whole situation as putting pressure on OpenAI to come to their senses and quick. That we are in violent agreement on, the board should negotiate to be allowed to flee indemnified for the fall-out of their action. But if they do not OpenAI is done for, Anthropic has already indicated they are not going to be there to pick up the pieces, and Google and Meta will try to poach as many employees as they can by being 'not Microsoft' (which has a fair chance of working). So there is damage, but it isn't over yet and for the moment Microsoft looks as though they hold the most and the most valuable cards already. After all they already have 49%. Another 2% as a suing-for-peace pacifier and they're as good as kings.

brandall10 3y ago

I agree. But the message is to appeal to shareholders that they have the situation under control.