4 ms·

Looks like I'm still good for my bet with some friends that before 2028 a team of 5-10 people will create a blockbuster style movie that today costs 100+ millio

Looks like I'm still good for my bet with some friends that before 2028 a team of 5-10 people will create a blockbuster style movie that today costs 100+ million USD on a shoestring budget and we won't be able to tell.

CamperBob2 3y ago
It'll happen, but I think you're early. 2038 for sure, unless something drastic happens to stop it (or is forced to happen.)
accrual 3y ago
The first full-length AI generated movie will be an important milestone for sure, and will probably become a "required watch" for future AI history classes. I wonder what the Rotten Tomatoes page will look like.
- jjkaczor 3y ago
  As per the reviews - it will be hard to say, as both positive and negative takes will be uploaded by ChatGPT bots (or it's myriad of descendents).
- qiine 3y ago
  "I wonder what the Rotten Tomatoes page will look like" Surely it will be written using machine vision and llms !
throwaway743 3y ago
Definitely a big first for benchmarks. After that hyper personalized content/media generated on-demand
ben_w 3y ago
I wouldn't bet either way. Back in the mid 90s to 2010 or so, graphical improvements were hailed as photorealistic only to be improved upon with each subsequent blockbuster game. I think we're in a similar phase with AI[0]: every new release in $category is better, gets hailed as super fantastic world changing, is improved upon in the subsequent Two Minute Papers video on $category, and the cycle repeats. [0] all of them: LLMs, image generators, cars, robots, voice recognition and synthesis, scientific research, …
- Keyframe 3y ago
  Your comment reminded me of this: https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/ktyr1/unreal_yes_this_is_an_actual_pc_game_screenshot/ https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/ktyr1/unreal_yes_th... Many more examples, of course.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    Yup, that castle flyby, those reflections. I remember being mesmerised by the sequence as a teenager. Big quality improvement over Marathon 2 on a mid-90s Mac, which itself was a substantial boost over the Commodore 64 and NES I'd been playing on before that.
- Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
  > Back in the mid 90s to 2010 or so, graphical improvements were hailed as photorealistic Whenever I saw anybody calling those graphics "photorealistic", I always had to roll my eyes and question if those people were legally blind. Like, c'mon. Yeah, they could be large leaps ahead of the previous generation, but photorealistic? Get real. Even today, I'm not sure there's a single game that I would say has photo-realistic graphics.
  - ben_w 3y ago
    > Even today, I'm not sure there's a single game that I would say has photo-realistic graphics. Looking just at the videos (because I don't have time to play the latest games any more and even if I did it's unreleased), I think that "Unrecord" is also something I can't distinguish from a filmed cinematic experience[0]: https://store.steampowered.com/app/2381520/Unrecord/ https://store.steampowered.com/app/2381520/Unrecord/ Though there are still caveats even there, as the pixelated faces are almost certainly necessary given the state of the art; and because cinematic experiences are themselves fake, I can't tell if the guns are "really-real" or "Hollywood". Buuuuut… I thought much the same about Myst back in the day, and even the bits that stayed impressive for years (the fancy bedroom in the Stoneship age), don't stand out any more. Riven was better, but even that's not really realistic now. I think I did manage to fool my GCSE art teacher at the time with a printed screenshot from Riven, but that might just have been because printers were bad at everything.
marcusverus 3y ago
I'm pumped for this future, but I'm not sure that I buy your optimistic timeline. If the history of AI has taught us anything, it is that the last 1% of of progress is the hardest half. And given the unforgiving nature of the uncanny valley, the video produced by such a system will be worthless until it is damn-near perfect. That's a tall order!
deckard1 3y ago
I'm imagining more of an AI that takes a standard movie screenplay and a sidecar file, similar to a CSS file for the web and generates the movie. This sidecar file would contain the "director" of the movie, with camera angles, shot length and speed, color grading, etc. Don't like how the new Dune movie looks? Edit the stylesheet and make it your own. Personalized remixed blockbusters. On a more serious note, I don't think Roger Deakins has anything to worry about right now. Or maybe ever. We've been here before. DAWs opened up an entire world of audio production to people that could afford a laptop and some basic gear. But we certainly do not have a thousand Beatles out there. It still requires talent and effort.
- timeon 3y ago
  > thousand Beatles out there. It still requires talent and effort As well as marketing.
henriquecm8 3y ago
What I am really looking forward is some Star Trek style holodeck, but I guess we will start with it in VR headsets first. Geordi: "Computer, in the Holmesian style, create a mystery to confound Data with an opponent who has the ability to defeat him"

CamperBob2 3y ago

It'll happen, but I think you're early. 2038 for sure, unless something drastic happens to stop it (or is forced to happen.)

accrual 3y ago

The first full-length AI generated movie will be an important milestone for sure, and will probably become a "required watch" for future AI history classes. I wonder what the Rotten Tomatoes page will look like.

jjkaczor 3y ago
As per the reviews - it will be hard to say, as both positive and negative takes will be uploaded by ChatGPT bots (or it's myriad of descendents).
qiine 3y ago
"I wonder what the Rotten Tomatoes page will look like" Surely it will be written using machine vision and llms !

throwaway743 3y ago

Definitely a big first for benchmarks. After that hyper personalized content/media generated on-demand

ben_w 3y ago

I wouldn't bet either way. Back in the mid 90s to 2010 or so, graphical improvements were hailed as photorealistic only to be improved upon with each subsequent blockbuster game. I think we're in a similar phase with AI[0]: every new release in $category is better, gets hailed as super fantastic world changing, is improved upon in the subsequent Two Minute Papers video on $category, and the cycle repeats. [0] all of them: LLMs, image generators, cars, robots, voice recognition and synthesis, scientific research, …

Keyframe 3y ago
Your comment reminded me of this: https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/ktyr1/unreal_yes_this_is_an_actual_pc_game_screenshot/ https://www.reddit.com/r/gaming/comments/ktyr1/unreal_yes_th... Many more examples, of course.
- ben_w 3y ago
  Yup, that castle flyby, those reflections. I remember being mesmerised by the sequence as a teenager. Big quality improvement over Marathon 2 on a mid-90s Mac, which itself was a substantial boost over the Commodore 64 and NES I'd been playing on before that.
Sohcahtoa82 3y ago
> Back in the mid 90s to 2010 or so, graphical improvements were hailed as photorealistic Whenever I saw anybody calling those graphics "photorealistic", I always had to roll my eyes and question if those people were legally blind. Like, c'mon. Yeah, they could be large leaps ahead of the previous generation, but photorealistic? Get real. Even today, I'm not sure there's a single game that I would say has photo-realistic graphics.
- ben_w 3y ago
  > Even today, I'm not sure there's a single game that I would say has photo-realistic graphics. Looking just at the videos (because I don't have time to play the latest games any more and even if I did it's unreleased), I think that "Unrecord" is also something I can't distinguish from a filmed cinematic experience[0]: https://store.steampowered.com/app/2381520/Unrecord/ https://store.steampowered.com/app/2381520/Unrecord/ Though there are still caveats even there, as the pixelated faces are almost certainly necessary given the state of the art; and because cinematic experiences are themselves fake, I can't tell if the guns are "really-real" or "Hollywood". Buuuuut… I thought much the same about Myst back in the day, and even the bits that stayed impressive for years (the fancy bedroom in the Stoneship age), don't stand out any more. Riven was better, but even that's not really realistic now. I think I did manage to fool my GCSE art teacher at the time with a printed screenshot from Riven, but that might just have been because printers were bad at everything.

marcusverus 3y ago

I'm pumped for this future, but I'm not sure that I buy your optimistic timeline. If the history of AI has taught us anything, it is that the last 1% of of progress is the hardest half. And given the unforgiving nature of the uncanny valley, the video produced by such a system will be worthless until it is damn-near perfect. That's a tall order!

deckard1 3y ago

I'm imagining more of an AI that takes a standard movie screenplay and a sidecar file, similar to a CSS file for the web and generates the movie. This sidecar file would contain the "director" of the movie, with camera angles, shot length and speed, color grading, etc. Don't like how the new Dune movie looks? Edit the stylesheet and make it your own. Personalized remixed blockbusters. On a more serious note, I don't think Roger Deakins has anything to worry about right now. Or maybe ever. We've been here before. DAWs opened up an entire world of audio production to people that could afford a laptop and some basic gear. But we certainly do not have a thousand Beatles out there. It still requires talent and effort.

timeon 3y ago
> thousand Beatles out there. It still requires talent and effort As well as marketing.

henriquecm8 3y ago

What I am really looking forward is some Star Trek style holodeck, but I guess we will start with it in VR headsets first. Geordi: "Computer, in the Holmesian style, create a mystery to confound Data with an opponent who has the ability to defeat him"