3 ms·

MSFT is up over 50% since investing $10B in OpenAI. That's a couple orders magnitude difference in market cap over the investment alone. Satya does not sound l

MSFT is up over 50% since investing $10B in OpenAI. That's a couple orders magnitude difference in market cap over the investment alone. Satya does not sound like someone communicating from a position of strength - he's been repeatedly assuring his shareholders that no matter what happens, their AI plans moving forward are secure. They need stability, not chaos, because whatever clear lead it seems they have right now could be quickly be eclipsed in the coming months. Committing securities fraud and accepting a fine would pale in comparison to the potential value erosion.

jacquesm 3y ago
Securities fraud == jail time. You really don't want to go there as the public face of a listed company.
- brandall10 3y ago
  Sure it can, but this is an extremely unlikely case for jail time.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    Ask Martha Stewart if she agrees with that statement. Unlikely doesn't mean it doesn't happen and the more high profile a case the more likely the SEC will do something about it. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/10-ceos-who-went-boardroom-cell-block-flna783944 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/10-ceos-who-went-bo...
    - brandall10 3y ago
      Martha Stewart was clearly an unusual situation where they were trying to make an example to hit hard in the public discourse. I don't think the average citizen will care so much. When it comes to white collar crime making some white lies to bolster shareholder confidence is not in the same orbit as the type of massive fraud for notable jail time cases over the last couple decades. At worst it should be a moderate SEC fine, perhaps a shareholder lawsuit if things don't turn out favorable. And this is assuming a lot that has to go wrong.
      - jacquesm 3y ago
        I don't presume to know what is the appropriate punishment for something like this. I do know that this is a high profile case and those attract attention of regulators because there is the opportunity to make an example. And I also know that people in fact did go to jail for what in monetary terms were far smaller offenses. Nadella isn't that stupid. I don't like him because he's just like Gates but with a lot more polish but I would not bet against him in anything concerning legal affairs. MS has some of the best legal minds in the industry, in fact I'd rate them higher on legal than I do on technical acumen.
        brandall10 3y ago
        Again, they make an example because people are pissed off. Despite this saga making front page news, no one is going to care much about Satya making misleading claims about OpenAI IP ownership. The average person on the street will not lose their retirement fund from that revelation. The links to politicians, lobby efforts, the US economy, etc, etc... means something really egregious has to happen for jail time to be an issue w/ high level white collar crime. EDIT: Since I can't respond further to the chain - tons of people cared about Martha Stewart. They were sick of people in high society getting a slap on the wrist for things like this. It definitely was a cathartis... esp. from someone so unlikely.
        jacquesm 3y ago
        Absolutely nobody was pissed off about Martha Stewart. And at least 700 people + a whole raft of well known investors are pissed off about the OpenAI situation, so if MS Execs commit securities fraud - a stretch to begin with - there will be a lot of support for such action. I'm trying very hard not to let my personal feelings about Microsoft cloud my judgment and if anything happened to Microsoft I wouldn't shed a tear (and might even open a bottle of bitter lemon). I don't see them committing an own goal like that. But, I don't think we're going to agree on this.
- alasdair_ 3y ago
  "Funding secured!"
- passion__desire 3y ago
  https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/6/23059930/nvidia-sec-charges-fine-settlement-gaming-gpu-crypto-mining https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/6/23059930/nvidia-sec-charge...
TheOtherHobbes 3y ago
MSFT doesn't have the culture to continue development at the same rate. So even if it had everything - people, code, weights, office plants, all of it - it's still not going to be able to do much it in the future. GPT5 might keep the momentum going for a while, but that's going to be it. MSFT actually is fighting for its life. GPT4 is an intriguingly useful curiosity, Later GPTs had the potential to be culturally, politically, financially and technically revolutionary. That likely won't happen now. We'll get some kind of enshittified prohibitively expensive mediocrity instead.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  > MSFT actually is fighting for its life. Ok. That's funny. But if this turns out to be the piece of the apple that MS ends up choking on then maybe it was all worth it? Could someone suggest Adam D'Angelo for the boards of Facebook, Google and Twitter please. Oh, wait... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo
  - brandall10 3y ago
    And I repeat - MSFT is up over 50% since investing $10B in OpenAI. That happened this year. This is the most important thing on their plate. Of the slate of $1-3T tech companies the question of "where can we go from here?"... this is where, and the winners will be the first $10T enterprises.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      Yes, and they just got for the bargain basement price of 13 billion a 90 billion bonus. They come out smelling like roses already and it can only get better, not worse for them going forward.
      - brandall10 3y ago
        Not necessarily. There will be a period of uncertainty/instability that competitors can emerge and capitalize on. Say the whole crew comes along, it could still be several months and maybe all sorts of legal wrangling making things difficult. But more likely there will be splintering that will benefit Google, Anthropic, Meta, Apple, esp. if comp is there, and that could be catastrophic. I read this whole situation as putting pressure on OpenAI to come to their senses and quick.

jacquesm 3y ago

Securities fraud == jail time. You really don't want to go there as the public face of a listed company.

brandall10 3y ago
Sure it can, but this is an extremely unlikely case for jail time.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  Ask Martha Stewart if she agrees with that statement. Unlikely doesn't mean it doesn't happen and the more high profile a case the more likely the SEC will do something about it. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/10-ceos-who-went-boardroom-cell-block-flna783944 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/10-ceos-who-went-bo...
  - brandall10 3y ago
    Martha Stewart was clearly an unusual situation where they were trying to make an example to hit hard in the public discourse. I don't think the average citizen will care so much. When it comes to white collar crime making some white lies to bolster shareholder confidence is not in the same orbit as the type of massive fraud for notable jail time cases over the last couple decades. At worst it should be a moderate SEC fine, perhaps a shareholder lawsuit if things don't turn out favorable. And this is assuming a lot that has to go wrong.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      I don't presume to know what is the appropriate punishment for something like this. I do know that this is a high profile case and those attract attention of regulators because there is the opportunity to make an example. And I also know that people in fact did go to jail for what in monetary terms were far smaller offenses. Nadella isn't that stupid. I don't like him because he's just like Gates but with a lot more polish but I would not bet against him in anything concerning legal affairs. MS has some of the best legal minds in the industry, in fact I'd rate them higher on legal than I do on technical acumen.
      - brandall10 3y ago
        Again, they make an example because people are pissed off. Despite this saga making front page news, no one is going to care much about Satya making misleading claims about OpenAI IP ownership. The average person on the street will not lose their retirement fund from that revelation. The links to politicians, lobby efforts, the US economy, etc, etc... means something really egregious has to happen for jail time to be an issue w/ high level white collar crime. EDIT: Since I can't respond further to the chain - tons of people cared about Martha Stewart. They were sick of people in high society getting a slap on the wrist for things like this. It definitely was a cathartis... esp. from someone so unlikely.
        jacquesm 3y ago
        Absolutely nobody was pissed off about Martha Stewart. And at least 700 people + a whole raft of well known investors are pissed off about the OpenAI situation, so if MS Execs commit securities fraud - a stretch to begin with - there will be a lot of support for such action. I'm trying very hard not to let my personal feelings about Microsoft cloud my judgment and if anything happened to Microsoft I wouldn't shed a tear (and might even open a bottle of bitter lemon). I don't see them committing an own goal like that. But, I don't think we're going to agree on this.
alasdair_ 3y ago
"Funding secured!"
passion__desire 3y ago
https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/6/23059930/nvidia-sec-charges-fine-settlement-gaming-gpu-crypto-mining https://www.theverge.com/2022/5/6/23059930/nvidia-sec-charge...

TheOtherHobbes 3y ago

MSFT doesn't have the culture to continue development at the same rate. So even if it had everything - people, code, weights, office plants, all of it - it's still not going to be able to do much it in the future. GPT5 might keep the momentum going for a while, but that's going to be it. MSFT actually is fighting for its life. GPT4 is an intriguingly useful curiosity, Later GPTs had the potential to be culturally, politically, financially and technically revolutionary. That likely won't happen now. We'll get some kind of enshittified prohibitively expensive mediocrity instead.

jacquesm 3y ago
> MSFT actually is fighting for its life. Ok. That's funny. But if this turns out to be the piece of the apple that MS ends up choking on then maybe it was all worth it? Could someone suggest Adam D'Angelo for the boards of Facebook, Google and Twitter please. Oh, wait... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_D%27Angelo
- brandall10 3y ago
  And I repeat - MSFT is up over 50% since investing $10B in OpenAI. That happened this year. This is the most important thing on their plate. Of the slate of $1-3T tech companies the question of "where can we go from here?"... this is where, and the winners will be the first $10T enterprises.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    Yes, and they just got for the bargain basement price of 13 billion a 90 billion bonus. They come out smelling like roses already and it can only get better, not worse for them going forward.
    - brandall10 3y ago
      Not necessarily. There will be a period of uncertainty/instability that competitors can emerge and capitalize on. Say the whole crew comes along, it could still be several months and maybe all sorts of legal wrangling making things difficult. But more likely there will be splintering that will benefit Google, Anthropic, Meta, Apple, esp. if comp is there, and that could be catastrophic. I read this whole situation as putting pressure on OpenAI to come to their senses and quick.