I think you are confusing investment with innovation. The investment, and the marketing to raise those funds comes before any innovation might happen. The "bi

I think you are confusing investment with innovation. The investment, and the marketing to raise those funds comes before any innovation might happen. The "big bet" that the title is referring to is the future innovation that everyone knows doesn't exist yet. The upside potential for innovation is the entire point of investing in R&D. If you think that this upside potential is not very well defined, entirely hypothetical, and isn't even clear that it will even happen, you're entirely right. Investors call this "risk".