3 ms·

Source? My understanding is that this can be true in some regions but requires fairly aggressive use of, not only overbuilt renewables (which may pose challeng

Source? My understanding is that this can be true in some regions but requires fairly aggressive use of, not only overbuilt renewables (which may pose challenges in land use and siting), but also long haul transmission (also difficult to site), demand response, etc. And then there's the scary possibility of an extended weather anomaly (several weeks with no wind and minimal solar). Having some long term storage in the mix, probably in the form of green hydrogen or another e-fuel, greatly increases our options for building a robust fossil-free grid. Putting more clean firm sources such as nuclear or advanced geothermal in the mix also helps, but I am not optimistic regarding nuclear, and advanced geothermal is still pretty immature.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-solar-wind https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcgECmaMkAg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcgECmaMkAg https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/the-best-electricity-plan-overbuild-solar-wind-power-plants/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/the-best-electricity-pl... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at-up-to-4-times-peak-load-yields-a-least-cost-all-renewables-grid/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at... https://energycentral.com/c/em/overbuilding-curtailing-renewables-more-cost-effective-adding-storage-study-mn https://energycentral.com/c/em/overbuilding-curtailing-renew... https://ases.org/firm-power-generation/ https://ases.org/firm-power-generation/
- Emma_Goldman 3y ago
  Interesting and bold proposition, but I suspect the reason why this has not been treated as a feasible vision by any government is that it is optimised for least-cost in the median scenario, not high energy security in the extreme scenario of wind and sun droughts, and that it does not factor in the limits to wind and PV deployment rates. Also, the first scenario still favours electrolytic hydrogen over li-on batteries anyway.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tripling-renewables/ https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tri... > Governments plan to double renewable capacity by 2030, and tripling is within sight, according to a newly released report. > Many countries are already on track to exceed their national targets, and more ambition is achievable to bring a tripling of global renewables within reach, according to an analysis of national targets by energy think tank Ember. > The report analyzes renewables targets for 57 countries, plus the EU, that collectively represent 90% of global power sector emissions. According to these targets, global renewable capacity will reach an estimated 7.3 terawatts (TW) in 2030, more than doubling from 3.4 TW in 2022. More than 75% of renewable capacity in 2030, where stated, will be from solar and wind. > However, the current renewables boom is already outpacing governments’ planned growth. The world could achieve a doubling just by continuing the deployment achieved in 2023 throughout the rest of the decade – yet all signs point to a more rapid growth curve. > If the countries analyzed by Ember continue the growth rate of 17% achieved since 2016 throughout the rest of this decade, it would put the world on track for a tripling of renewables. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carbon-emissions-set-for-structural-decline-from-next-year https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carb... > The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020. > The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report.
  - Emma_Goldman 3y ago
    I can't reply to your comment so posting here: Growth rates can be misleading when starting from a low absolutes. The EU and the UK, the two cases I'm most familiar with, do not look set to meet their renewable targets. The UK climate advisory body, that sets each phase of the national carbon budget, specifically include energy security, weather sensitivity and deployment rates limits into their modelling of the future UK energy mix and the role of hydrogen storage (though of course 'limits' are not fixed but relative to competing priorities and alternatives): https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-decarbonised-power-system/ https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-...

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-solar-wind https://www.mr-sustainability.com/stories/2021/overbuilding-... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcgECmaMkAg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KcgECmaMkAg https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/the-best-electricity-plan-overbuild-solar-wind-power-plants/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/the-best-electricity-pl... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at-up-to-4-times-peak-load-yields-a-least-cost-all-renewables-grid/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2020/05/14/overbuilding-solar-at... https://energycentral.com/c/em/overbuilding-curtailing-renewables-more-cost-effective-adding-storage-study-mn https://energycentral.com/c/em/overbuilding-curtailing-renew... https://ases.org/firm-power-generation/ https://ases.org/firm-power-generation/

Emma_Goldman 3y ago
Interesting and bold proposition, but I suspect the reason why this has not been treated as a feasible vision by any government is that it is optimised for least-cost in the median scenario, not high energy security in the extreme scenario of wind and sun droughts, and that it does not factor in the limits to wind and PV deployment rates. Also, the first scenario still favours electrolytic hydrogen over li-on batteries anyway.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tripling-renewables/ https://electrek.co/2023/11/20/world-may-be-on-track-for-tri... > Governments plan to double renewable capacity by 2030, and tripling is within sight, according to a newly released report. > Many countries are already on track to exceed their national targets, and more ambition is achievable to bring a tripling of global renewables within reach, according to an analysis of national targets by energy think tank Ember. > The report analyzes renewables targets for 57 countries, plus the EU, that collectively represent 90% of global power sector emissions. According to these targets, global renewable capacity will reach an estimated 7.3 terawatts (TW) in 2030, more than doubling from 3.4 TW in 2022. More than 75% of renewable capacity in 2030, where stated, will be from solar and wind. > However, the current renewables boom is already outpacing governments’ planned growth. The world could achieve a doubling just by continuing the deployment achieved in 2023 throughout the rest of the decade – yet all signs point to a more rapid growth curve. > If the countries analyzed by Ember continue the growth rate of 17% achieved since 2016 throughout the rest of this decade, it would put the world on track for a tripling of renewables. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carbon-emissions-set-for-structural-decline-from-next-year https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carb... > The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020. > The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report.
- Emma_Goldman 3y ago
  I can't reply to your comment so posting here: Growth rates can be misleading when starting from a low absolutes. The EU and the UK, the two cases I'm most familiar with, do not look set to meet their renewable targets. The UK climate advisory body, that sets each phase of the national carbon budget, specifically include energy security, weather sensitivity and deployment rates limits into their modelling of the future UK energy mix and the role of hydrogen storage (though of course 'limits' are not fixed but relative to competing priorities and alternatives): https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-decarbonised-power-system/ https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/delivering-a-reliable-...