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You'd be right if it weren't for the fact that Elon Musk has a track record of succeeding where others basically insist things can't be done. Falcon 9 rockets b

You'd be right if it weren't for the fact that Elon Musk has a track record of succeeding where others basically insist things can't be done. Falcon 9 rockets being reused is a good example. Completely mad idea. Nearly bankrupted spacex. And now it's a routine event. Tesla now being a best selling car brand is another example. That didn't just happen by accident but is the result of a lot of engineering and planning. Like SpaceX, not everything went according to plan with Tesla and the company nearly bankrupted itself several times in the process of basically becoming the money printing machine it is today. The point is, both companies are still here and really successful at what they do after taking lots of early risk to get there. Starship is a crazy idea. Completely nuts. And it could actually work. That's the crazy part. This was only the second launch. It took four attempts to get the first Falcon rocket to space. What we saw a few days ago was a rocket that nearly worked and only developed issues very late into the launch. Next time, they might get a little further. At this point it looks like there are a lot of challenges but none that look like they can't be overcome. One thing is clear. SpaceX is very well funded and they should not have any budgetary constraints doing this over and over again. There are no 100% guarantees they'll get it right eventually. But it looks like they have a very decent shot at it. If they fail, it won't be for a lack of trying.

rich_sasha 3y ago
Yes it may well work. Yes, Musk is, one way or another, associated with these projects. That's not the point. The point is, these things may still fail. No shame in that. The fact that Musk rolled a 6 on a die ten times in a row doesn't mean he always does that. But the narrative around it completely denies it. Any outcome is an unmitigated great success and yet another proof that Starship will succeed and we will colonise Mars. Good luck to Starship succeeding, but the crazy optimism, denialist of even a chance of failure is unbearable.
- jillesvangurp 3y ago
  I don't think there's any concrete reason to be overly negative here. Also, I did point out that there are no guarantees. But he seems to have solved a few hard problems already. Including with Starship. Musk is not just "associated with", but a main driver of technical decision making in all of his projects. Give the man some credit. The narrative that he just happens to get lucky a lot doesn't stand a lot of scrutiny.

rich_sasha 3y ago

Yes it may well work. Yes, Musk is, one way or another, associated with these projects. That's not the point. The point is, these things may still fail. No shame in that. The fact that Musk rolled a 6 on a die ten times in a row doesn't mean he always does that. But the narrative around it completely denies it. Any outcome is an unmitigated great success and yet another proof that Starship will succeed and we will colonise Mars. Good luck to Starship succeeding, but the crazy optimism, denialist of even a chance of failure is unbearable.

jillesvangurp 3y ago
I don't think there's any concrete reason to be overly negative here. Also, I did point out that there are no guarantees. But he seems to have solved a few hard problems already. Including with Starship. Musk is not just "associated with", but a main driver of technical decision making in all of his projects. Give the man some credit. The narrative that he just happens to get lucky a lot doesn't stand a lot of scrutiny.