4 ms·
The TL;DR, as far as I can tell, is things have been accelerating so they will continue to accelerate even faster and cause even more significant changes. This
by takinola 3y ago
The TL;DR, as far as I can tell, is things have been accelerating so they will continue to accelerate even faster and cause even more significant changes. This is plausible. However, I don't think it follows that this is bad for humanity just that the changes will be massive.
Sure, a hunter gatherer from 50,000 years back would be freaked out by a bronze age city 5 thousand years ago but the change was not bad for humanity. Why won't the same thing happen in 500 years?
- adastra22 3y agoWell, you asked for the steel man. It’s not easy for me to give one because I fundamentally disagree with most of the underlying assumptions. Superintelligence is the standard work, and Tim does a decent summary of it. Most of the AI existential risk concern comes down to whether a “singleton” will arise from AGI research, to use their terminology. A singleton is an entity that in a runaway increase of power ends up outwitting and outmaneuvering all other entities and becoming the single dominating, controlling force within the entire sphere of human existence. There are so many reasons this is unlikely. It wouldn’t even be worth talking about if it weren’t for the sad fact so many otherwise smart people fall victim to this memeplex. FYI timelines they are talking about are not so much 500 years as 5 months, or maybe 5 minutes.