I think people here will likely be somewhat open to that conspiracy theory, as my assumption is they'd rather see the world through a lens where capable but mal

I think people here will likely be somewhat open to that conspiracy theory, as my assumption is they'd rather see the world through a lens where capable but malicious individuals are able to enact such complex plans, than believe even smart people can make a series of progressively dumb decisions without correctly predicting the downstream consequences. The far simpler explanation: Microsoft positioned itself very ably prior to this debacle, and its experienced and ruthless executive team was able to successfully capitalise on a major mistake as a result. This way you do not need to purport the existence of a seer-like ability within Satya to correctly predict third+ order effects, just a very high level of experience + competence for one party, and the opposite for the other. Truth is, until a reasonable sounding explanation of what set these events into motion is made public, it'll be impossible to put any narrative to rest.