5 ms·
This is sorta brilliant. Microsoft has access to almost everything OpenAI does. And now Altman and Brockman will have that access too. Meanwhile, I imagine t
by nostromo 3y ago
This is sorta brilliant.
Microsoft has access to almost everything OpenAI does. And now Altman and Brockman will have that access too.
Meanwhile, I imagine their tenure at MSFT will be short-lived, because hot-shot startup folks don’t really want to work there.
They can stabilize, use OpenAI’s data and models for free, use Microsoft’s GPUs at cost, and start a new company shortly, of which Microsoft will own some large share.
Altman doesn’t need Microsoft’s money - but Microsoft has direct access to OpenAI, which is currently priceless.
- mirzap 3y agoSatya will probably allow them to run a startup under the MS umbrella without interference and with full MS backing.
- dagmx 3y agoI really don’t think that’s in the Microsoft DNA to do
- mirzap 3y agoThis is not Ballmer era. It's Satya.
- jampekka 3y agoThis is not Melkor era. It's Sauron.
- mirzap 3y agoAs I was saying, Satya justt confirmed it: https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569 https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569
- toomuchtodo 3y agoThis was inevitable and the only path forward. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38318205 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38318205 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38337522 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38337522 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38342882 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38342882
- ctvo 3y agoSaying it and doing it are very different things. Many huge, lumbering companies have a “startup” lab. Few have done anything of note, and typically it’s because the reasons that made the company move slow and not take risks don’t magically disappear because you’re in a different part of the org chart.
- capableweb 3y agoIf anything, the examples in that tweet shows the opposite. GitHub and Mojang both done lots of things that wouldn't happen if they weren't now Microsoft, especially GitHub which is only "GitHub" by name at this point, none of the original spirit is still there.
- mirzap 3y agoGitHub is a great example of how an OpenAI team can thrive under Microsoft. Github has drastically improved and has never been better.
- htrp 3y ago100% agree
- scythe 3y agoMicrosoft is not just any huge, lumbering company, though. It has probably the best history of research of any pure software company (leaving aside IBM etc): Microsoft Research funded Haskell behind the scenes for years, they had a quantum computing unit in 2006, and already in 2018 were beating the field in AI patents and research: https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2019/01/06/microsoft-leads-the-ai-patent-race-going-into-2019/?sh=3a0a479744de https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2019/01/06/micros... Believing that OpenAI is MSFT's sole move in the AI space would be a serious error.
- stingraycharles 3y agoI believe Microsoft R&D has always been a widely respected and culturally “different” org than the rest of the Microsoft org.
- cal85 3y agoSure but this situation overrrides that. Sam has a lot of bargaining power.
- jimsimmons 3y agoHow will equity and compensation work AI peeps are not cheap
- manc_lad 3y agomultiple ways to make that work. LTIPs, share options, direct equity in subsidiary etc
- jimsimmons 3y agoMSFT comp is shit though OAI comp was high based on equity and its crazy valuations
- saagarjha 3y agoIs Microsoft compensation for top AI talent also bad?
- adw 3y agoReceived wisdom has been “not competitive”. I wonder how the MSR folk feel about all of this, too.
- realprimoh 3y agoMicrosoft comp is actually not bad at higher levels, which I assume will be given to all OAI people that will join.
- discordance 3y agoFor us maybe, but they have pulled off some high profile hires in the past… Brendan Burns (one of the main k8s guys) for example.
- jacooper 3y agoOpenAI never gave equity.
- sekai 3y agoYeah... Not really how a mega-corp like MSFT does things. They LOVE to have control.
- mongol 3y agoWas not the Xbox team kinda run like that?
- jonbell 3y agoIt’s not 1998 anymore, you’d be surprised
- karmasimida 3y agoIt is Satya we are talking about, I won't bet against him.
- DANmode 3y agoMicrosoft is not a pyramid organization, but distributed into teams - like Google, for better or for worse.
- rizky05 3y ago[dead]
- saagarjha 3y agoMicrosoft seems to be the best of the mega-corps at that.
- doikor 3y agoThe game studios under Xbox run quite independently with the most extreme example being Mojang with Minecraft which still releases all their games on Playstation/Nintendo consoles too. But the other studios are also very independent based on all the interviews (though they don't in general release their games on Playstation or Switch) As I understand Github is also run very independently from Microsoft in general.
- realprimoh 3y ago
- esskay 3y agoHighly unlikely. Instead they'll be working on internal Windows AI tools for chatbots and random AI features in Windows. We all lose in this situation.
- beoberha 3y agoThere’s no chance Sam is joining Microsoft to be some “VP of AI” to drive strategy like that. He’s going to be driving some new business where he’ll be able to move quickly and have a ton of control.
- mirzap 3y agoAs I was saying, Satya just confirmed it: https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569 https://twitter.com/satyanadella/status/1726516824597258569
- blitzar 3y agoOptimization of Microsoft Edge (tm) icon placement to win the browser wars.
- fsckboy 3y agoif hot shot startup folks don't want to work there, why would they even go there? If you're flat broke, you need a job; they're not flat broke, they don't need a job. The deal at MS is worth it, or it's not, it's not something they need to decide over the course of a weekend... unless it's what they were already not being candid about.
- sekai 3y ago> if hot shot startup folks don't want to work there, why would they even go there MSFT may have offered them a lucrative offer to join (for the time being) in order to alleviate the potential stock dump.
- tsunamifury 3y agoSam is already post money rich. Lucrative isn’t in this equation
- fsckboy 3y ago>Sam is already post money rich. Lucrative isn’t in this equation i totally agree, except stupid-lucrative is still in the equation, like Elon Musk rich, not because of the money, but because it says "my electric cars did more to stop global warming than anything you've done" whether this round of AI turns into AGI doesn't precisely matter, it's on the way and it's going to be big, who wouldn't want their name attached to it.
- akmarinov 3y agoMicrosoft have access to the gold mine and with a bit of time Altman can get enough gold to open a jewelry business
- estomagordo 3y agoHow? It's not like he expect to just walk out of there with models or data?
- cphoover 3y ago"brilliant" I think "predictable" is more apt.
- divbzero 3y agoIt makes perfect sense for Satya, Sam, and Greg, but I doubt many of us thought deeply enough to have predicted it in advance.
- singularity2001 3y agolink to your prediction?
- sanderjd 3y agoI've read a decent amount of predictions about this and had not actually seen this one or considered it until I read about it happening. I think the predictable thing would have been a new company with new investment from Microsoft. But this is better; it a bit like magical thinking that MS would want to just throw more money after a new venture and essentially write off the old one. This solution accomplished similar things, but gives more to Microsoft in the trade by bringing that "new company" fully in house.
- ybob 3y agoLets assume the whole structure works, 1-2 years later, Sam becomes the apparent CEO candidate after Satya.
- precompute 3y agoThat would be very bad.
- sanderjd 3y agoI said this elsewhere, but think the timeline is longer than that. Either Sam and Satya will butt heads and Altman will be sidelined, or it will be a good partnership, and he'll be on the shortlist as a successor when Nadella's run naturally comes to a close. But that second path is longer than a couple years.
- sanmon3186 3y ago> Microsoft has access to almost everything OpenAI does. And now Altman and Brockman will have that access too. Microsoft still has to deal with OpenAI as an entity to keep the existing set up intact. The new team has to kinda start from zero. Right?
- sanderjd 3y agoThat was my first thought too: Didn't occur to me as a solution, and it seems to square the circle brilliantly. It struck me that this is why people who are CEOs of mammoth companies have the jobs they have, and not me :)