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Would a 2.75 trillion dollar software company that has been around since the inception of the modern computer be able to keep up? Probably. If the people runni

Would a 2.75 trillion dollar software company that has been around since the inception of the modern computer be able to keep up? Probably. If the people running it and the shareholders were committed to keeping up and spending money to do so.

ben_w 3y ago
That wasn’t sufficient for Bing, Cortana, or Windows Mobile/Windows Phone.
- smoldesu 3y ago
  It wasn't sufficient for Google+ or Farmville either, but both Google and Meta have extremely competitive LLMs. If Microsoft commit themselves (which is a big if), they could have a competitive AI research lab. They're a cloud company now though, so it makes sense that they'd align themselves with the most service-oriented business of the lot.
  - p1esk 3y ago
    both Google and Meta have extremely competitive LLMs No they don’t. Both Bard and Llama are far behind GPT-4, and GPT-4 finished training in August 2022.
    - smoldesu 3y ago
      GPT-4 is a magnitude larger and not a magnitude better. Even before that, GPT-3 was not a particularly high watermark (compared to T5 and BERT) and GPT-2 was famously so expensive to run that it ran up a 6-figure monthly cloud spend just for inferencing. Lord knows what GPT-4 costs at-scale, but I'm not convinced it's cost-competitive with the alternatives.
      - p1esk 3y ago
        GPT-4 is an existential threat to Google. Since March 24 of this year, 80% of the time I ask GPT-4 questions I would google before. And Google knows this. They are throwing billions at it but simply cannot catch up.
        smoldesu 3y ago
        Beating OpenAI in a money-pissing competition is not their priority. I don't use Google or harbor much love for them, but the existence of AI does not detract from the value of advertising. If anything, it funnels more people into it as they're looking to monetize that which is unprofitable. ChatGPT is not YouTube; it doesn't print money. Feel however you will about it, but people have been rattling this pan for decades now. Google's bottom line will exist until someone finds a better way to extract marginal revenue than advertising.
        p1esk 3y ago
        Beating OpenAI in a money-pissing competition is not their priority I bet Google has already spent an order of magnitude more money on GPT-4 rival development than OpenAI spent on GPT-4.
        smoldesu 3y ago
        For the sake of your wallet, I hope you don't put money on that. Google certainly spends an order of magnitude more than OpenAI because they have been around longer than them, ship their own hardware and maintain their own inferencing library. The amount they spend on training their LLMs is the minority, full-stop. I despise both of these companies, but Google's advantage here is so blatantly obvious that I struggle to see how you can even defend OpenAI like this.
        p1esk 3y ago
        Google's advantage here is so blatantly obvious Exactly. Google has so much more resources, tries so hard to compete (it's literally life or death for them), and yet it's still so far behind. It's strange that you don't see that - if you haven't tried comparing Bard's output to GPT-4 for the same questions - try it, it will become obvious. It's quite possible their rumored Gemini model might finally catch up with GPT-4 at some point in the future - probably around the time GPT-5 is released.
    - fragmede 3y ago
      Why does ChatGPT-4 say its knowledge cut off date is April 2023? https://chat.openai.com/share/3dd98da4-13a5-4485-a916-60482ae7e9c2 https://chat.openai.com/share/3dd98da4-13a5-4485-a916-60482a...
      - p1esk 3y ago
        There are many versions of GPT-4 model that appeared after the first one. My point is that Google and others still cannot match the quality of the first one, more than a year after it was trained.
        smoldesu 3y ago
        According to the Bard technical paper (page 14), their model beats GPT-4 in several reasoning benchmarks: https://ai.google/static/documents/palm2techreport.pdf https://ai.google/static/documents/palm2techreport.pdf
- PostOnce 3y ago
  I personally believe these are marketing failures rather than technical failures. I also personally loathe Microsoft, but even I will concede that they probably have the technical wherewithal to follow known trajectories, the cat is out of the bag with AI now.
p1esk 3y ago
The larger the corporation the harder for it to keep up or innovate.

ben_w 3y ago

That wasn’t sufficient for Bing, Cortana, or Windows Mobile/Windows Phone.

smoldesu 3y ago
It wasn't sufficient for Google+ or Farmville either, but both Google and Meta have extremely competitive LLMs. If Microsoft commit themselves (which is a big if), they could have a competitive AI research lab. They're a cloud company now though, so it makes sense that they'd align themselves with the most service-oriented business of the lot.
- p1esk 3y ago
  both Google and Meta have extremely competitive LLMs No they don’t. Both Bard and Llama are far behind GPT-4, and GPT-4 finished training in August 2022.
  - smoldesu 3y ago
    GPT-4 is a magnitude larger and not a magnitude better. Even before that, GPT-3 was not a particularly high watermark (compared to T5 and BERT) and GPT-2 was famously so expensive to run that it ran up a 6-figure monthly cloud spend just for inferencing. Lord knows what GPT-4 costs at-scale, but I'm not convinced it's cost-competitive with the alternatives.
    - p1esk 3y ago
      GPT-4 is an existential threat to Google. Since March 24 of this year, 80% of the time I ask GPT-4 questions I would google before. And Google knows this. They are throwing billions at it but simply cannot catch up.
      - smoldesu 3y ago
        Beating OpenAI in a money-pissing competition is not their priority. I don't use Google or harbor much love for them, but the existence of AI does not detract from the value of advertising. If anything, it funnels more people into it as they're looking to monetize that which is unprofitable. ChatGPT is not YouTube; it doesn't print money. Feel however you will about it, but people have been rattling this pan for decades now. Google's bottom line will exist until someone finds a better way to extract marginal revenue than advertising.
        p1esk 3y ago
        Beating OpenAI in a money-pissing competition is not their priority I bet Google has already spent an order of magnitude more money on GPT-4 rival development than OpenAI spent on GPT-4.
        smoldesu 3y ago
        For the sake of your wallet, I hope you don't put money on that. Google certainly spends an order of magnitude more than OpenAI because they have been around longer than them, ship their own hardware and maintain their own inferencing library. The amount they spend on training their LLMs is the minority, full-stop. I despise both of these companies, but Google's advantage here is so blatantly obvious that I struggle to see how you can even defend OpenAI like this.
        p1esk 3y ago
        Google's advantage here is so blatantly obvious Exactly. Google has so much more resources, tries so hard to compete (it's literally life or death for them), and yet it's still so far behind. It's strange that you don't see that - if you haven't tried comparing Bard's output to GPT-4 for the same questions - try it, it will become obvious. It's quite possible their rumored Gemini model might finally catch up with GPT-4 at some point in the future - probably around the time GPT-5 is released.
  - fragmede 3y ago
    Why does ChatGPT-4 say its knowledge cut off date is April 2023? https://chat.openai.com/share/3dd98da4-13a5-4485-a916-60482ae7e9c2 https://chat.openai.com/share/3dd98da4-13a5-4485-a916-60482a...
    - p1esk 3y ago
      There are many versions of GPT-4 model that appeared after the first one. My point is that Google and others still cannot match the quality of the first one, more than a year after it was trained.
      - smoldesu 3y ago
        According to the Bard technical paper (page 14), their model beats GPT-4 in several reasoning benchmarks: https://ai.google/static/documents/palm2techreport.pdf https://ai.google/static/documents/palm2techreport.pdf
PostOnce 3y ago
I personally believe these are marketing failures rather than technical failures. I also personally loathe Microsoft, but even I will concede that they probably have the technical wherewithal to follow known trajectories, the cat is out of the bag with AI now.

p1esk 3y ago

The larger the corporation the harder for it to keep up or innovate.