Real progress follows two rules: 1. It takes longer than you think 2. It is much more iterative than you think We're not going to all wake up one day and see

Real progress follows two rules: 1. It takes longer than you think 2. It is much more iterative than you think We're not going to all wake up one day and see a robot simulating human thought. We'll just inch closer and closer until we're there, and we won't even realize we got there until we've been there for 5 years. AGI is not an iPhone launch. It's more like the evolution of humans, which took place over millions of years, without anyone being able to identify the first "real" human.