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I understand that having these prototype rockets blow up may be a cost-efficient way of improving the design. However, I still wonder how much of that was reall

I understand that having these prototype rockets blow up may be a cost-efficient way of improving the design. However, I still wonder how much of that was really expected, and what it says about the project progress. Also, how many successful launches will they consider enough before putting people's life at risk. I wouldn't feel super confident going into that rocket after having seen it blow up many times.

chrisco255 3y ago
The Falcon 9 rocket started off the same way. They blew up on launch and on landing multiple times early in its development, but has now become perhaps the most reliable and certainly the most reusable rocket model in history, with hundreds of launches per year now with no incidents.
mlindner 3y ago
The first planned use for Starship will likely be launching Starlink satellites. And there's no immediate plans to directly launch with humans on board. I'd personally ballpark that there will be well over 20 launches before anything regarding humans is considered.
chriswarbo 3y ago
It seems like the ship was terminated due to being off-course (which couldn't be corrected once its propellant was burned through). It succeeded in reaching space, it seemed to reach almost-orbit (they deliberately made it slightly slower, to avoid becoming a giant piece of space-junk if they happened to lose contact/control), so they've almost got it working as a traditional rocket. All of the crazy stuff they're planning, like returning and catching the booster, having the ship re-enter and land/get-caught, in-orbit refuelling, etc. will probably take a while to get right; but those are all "bonus features" that other rockets/companies don't bother with. I imagine it will be launching satellites pretty soon (next year?), at least in-house Starlinks, since refuelling, re-entering, landing, etc. can be done after the payload is safely deployed; and returning/catching the booster only takes place after safe separation (as we saw today, when the ship kept going after the booster's spectacular demise) It will take a while to human-rate it. I imagine we'll start by seeing crews transferring to Starships that launch uncrewed (e.g. like the HLS for Nasa); eventually we'll probably see crew launch, once it's established a decent track record. I'm unsure if we'll ever see people in the landing flip; I'd rather eject beforehand and parachute down!

chrisco255 3y ago

The Falcon 9 rocket started off the same way. They blew up on launch and on landing multiple times early in its development, but has now become perhaps the most reliable and certainly the most reusable rocket model in history, with hundreds of launches per year now with no incidents.

mlindner 3y ago

The first planned use for Starship will likely be launching Starlink satellites. And there's no immediate plans to directly launch with humans on board. I'd personally ballpark that there will be well over 20 launches before anything regarding humans is considered.

chriswarbo 3y ago

It seems like the ship was terminated due to being off-course (which couldn't be corrected once its propellant was burned through). It succeeded in reaching space, it seemed to reach almost-orbit (they deliberately made it slightly slower, to avoid becoming a giant piece of space-junk if they happened to lose contact/control), so they've almost got it working as a traditional rocket. All of the crazy stuff they're planning, like returning and catching the booster, having the ship re-enter and land/get-caught, in-orbit refuelling, etc. will probably take a while to get right; but those are all "bonus features" that other rockets/companies don't bother with. I imagine it will be launching satellites pretty soon (next year?), at least in-house Starlinks, since refuelling, re-entering, landing, etc. can be done after the payload is safely deployed; and returning/catching the booster only takes place after safe separation (as we saw today, when the ship kept going after the booster's spectacular demise) It will take a while to human-rate it. I imagine we'll start by seeing crews transferring to Starships that launch uncrewed (e.g. like the HLS for Nasa); eventually we'll probably see crew launch, once it's established a decent track record. I'm unsure if we'll ever see people in the landing flip; I'd rather eject beforehand and parachute down!