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> OpenAI’s biggest issue is that it has no moat. This just isn't true. They have the users, the customers, Microsoft, the backing, the years ahead of most, and

> OpenAI’s biggest issue is that it has no moat. This just isn't true. They have the users, the customers, Microsoft, the backing, the years ahead of most, and the good press. It's like saying Uber isn't worth anything because they don't own their cars and are just a middleman. Maybe that now changes since they fired the face of the company, and the press and sentiment turns on them.

dh2022 3y ago
Uber is worth less than zero. They already are at full capacity (how many cities are there left to expand) and still not profitable.
- graphe 3y ago
  It may not be profitable but it's utility is worth way more than zero.
- lancesells 3y ago
  I don't like Uber but no one is taking them over for a long while. They are not profitable but they continue to raise prices and you'll see it soon. They are doing exactly what everyone predicted by getting everyone using the app and then raising prices that are more expensive than the taxis they replaced.
rafaelero 3y ago
Decoupling from OpenAI API is pretty easy. If Google came up with Gemini tomorrow and it was a much better model, people would find ways to change their pipeline pretty quickly.
jjfoooo4 3y ago
Uber has multiple moats: The mutually supporting networks of drivers and riders, as well as the regulatory overhead of establishing operations throughout their many markets. OpenAI is an API you put text into and get text out of. As soon as someone makes a better model, customers can easily swap out OpenAI. In fact they are probably already doing so, trying out different models or optimizing for cost. The backing isn’t a moat. They can outspend rivals and maintain a lead for now, but their model is likely being extensively reverse engineered, I highly doubt they are years ahead of rivals. Backers want to cash out eventually, there’s not going to be any point where OpenAI is going to crowd out other market participants. Lastly, OpenAI doesn’t have the users. Google, Amazon, Jira, enterprise_product_foo has the users. All are frantically building context rich AI widgets within their own applications. The mega cos will use their own models, others will find they can use an open source model with the right context does just fine, even if not as powerful as the best model out there.

dh2022 3y ago

Uber is worth less than zero. They already are at full capacity (how many cities are there left to expand) and still not profitable.

graphe 3y ago
It may not be profitable but it's utility is worth way more than zero.
lancesells 3y ago
I don't like Uber but no one is taking them over for a long while. They are not profitable but they continue to raise prices and you'll see it soon. They are doing exactly what everyone predicted by getting everyone using the app and then raising prices that are more expensive than the taxis they replaced.

rafaelero 3y ago

Decoupling from OpenAI API is pretty easy. If Google came up with Gemini tomorrow and it was a much better model, people would find ways to change their pipeline pretty quickly.

jjfoooo4 3y ago

Uber has multiple moats: The mutually supporting networks of drivers and riders, as well as the regulatory overhead of establishing operations throughout their many markets. OpenAI is an API you put text into and get text out of. As soon as someone makes a better model, customers can easily swap out OpenAI. In fact they are probably already doing so, trying out different models or optimizing for cost. The backing isn’t a moat. They can outspend rivals and maintain a lead for now, but their model is likely being extensively reverse engineered, I highly doubt they are years ahead of rivals. Backers want to cash out eventually, there’s not going to be any point where OpenAI is going to crowd out other market participants. Lastly, OpenAI doesn’t have the users. Google, Amazon, Jira, enterprise_product_foo has the users. All are frantically building context rich AI widgets within their own applications. The mega cos will use their own models, others will find they can use an open source model with the right context does just fine, even if not as powerful as the best model out there.