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How important is Altman? How important were three senior scientists? Can they start their own company, raise funding, and overtake OpenAI in a few years? Or doe
by Waterluvian 3y ago
How important is Altman? How important were three senior scientists? Can they start their own company, raise funding, and overtake OpenAI in a few years? Or does OpenAI have some material advantage that isn’t likely to be harmed by this?
Perhaps the competition is inevitably a good thing. Or maybe a bad thing if it creates pressure to cut ethical corners.
I also wonder if the dream of an “open” org bringing this tech to life for the betterment of humanity is futile and the for-profits will eventually render them irrelevant.
- intellectronica 3y ago> How important is Altman? How important were three senior scientists? Can they start their own company, raise funding, and overtake OpenAI in a few years? The general opinion seems to be estimating this at far above 50% YES. I, personally would bet at 70% that this exactly what will happen. Unless some really damaging information becomes public about Altman, he will definitely have the strong reputation and credibility, definitely will be able to raise very significant funding, and the only expert in industry / research he definitely won’t be able to recruit would be Ilya Sutskever.
- tuxguy 3y agoAn optimistic perspective of how despite today's regrettable events, Sama and gdb will start something new and more competition is a good thing : https://x.com/DrJimFan/status/1725916938281627666?s=20 https://x.com/DrJimFan/status/1725916938281627666?s=20 I have a contrarian prediction : Due to pressure from investors and a lawsuit against the openai board, the board will be made to resign and Sama & Greg will return to openai. Anybody else agree ?
- Waterluvian 3y agoDo we know enough about the org’s charter to reasonably predict that case? Did the board actually do anything wrong? Or are you thinking it would be a kind of power play from investors to say, “nah, we want it to be profit driven.”
- cmrdporcupine 3y agoIf that's the outcome, I suspect OpenAI will have another wave of resignations as the folks aligned to Sutskever would walk away, too, and take with them their expertise.
- cthalupa 3y ago> I have a contrarian prediction : Due to pressure from investors and a lawsuit against the openai board, the board will be made to resign and Sama & Greg will return to openai. The board is not beholden to any investors. The board is for the non-profit that does not have shareholders, and it fully owns and controls the manager entity that controls the for-profit. The LLC's operating agreement is explicit that it is beholden to the charter and mission of the non-profit, not creating financial gain for the shareholders of the for-profit company.
- lll-o-lll 3y agoOpenAI will lose access to MS and the billions required to continue the research as quickly as MS is able to move. The non-profit will continue, but without the resources required to do much, and any scientists who want to have “real world impact” as opposed to “ideological dreams” will move on. Competition will kill these ideological dreams because the technology has huge commercial and political applications. MS would never have invested had they foreseen these events and OpenAI cannot achieve their mission without access to incredible amounts of capital. He’s dead Jim, but it’ll take a long time before the corpse stops twitching.
- pknerd 3y agoLet's not forget the role of Ilya to make gpt what it is today