the 90% accounts for the "if". my point is there an expected value for the future revenue amount, subject to your own assumptions about the probability of each

the 90% accounts for the "if". my point is there an expected value for the future revenue amount, subject to your own assumptions about the probability of each outcome and your discount rate for the value of that money over time in scenarios where your expected value discounted to present value is greater than the alternative, you make the investment. it's really finance 101... it's just NPV