7 ms·
Are those the first cracks in the AI market bubble?
by dschuetz 3y ago
Are those the first cracks in the AI market bubble?
- huytersd 3y agoIs it a bubble if it’s useful and I use it dozens of time a day?
- dschuetz 3y agoI agree AI is useful, but not to that extent to what it is valued on the market. I do not think that AI companies can deliver as much as they promise. With the driving core at OpenAI basically gone, I bet they will soon implode under the weight of their promises. Which means, investors will start pulling out their stakes. boom
- romeros 3y agoWhat's the use of a newborn baby? AI is as real as the mobile/internet/pc revolution of the past. So many use it obsessively every single day.
- lazystar 3y ago"This is good for bitcoin."
- corethree 3y agoI paid the 20 dollar subscription. I don't even subscribe to netflix.
- hilux 3y agoSpeaking for my own n of 1, ChatGPT Pro has almost entirely (>90%) replaced the Google search engine in my daily life. The results from ChatGPT are just so much better and faster. That's got to be worth something, since Alphabet is a $1.7T company mostly on the strength of ads associated with Google search.
- Mentlo 3y agoChat gpt is not a good source of truth so can’t be used for information retrieval at scale. You might have a specific usage pattern that is very different to the majority of Google Search users so it works for you
- cryptoz 3y agoSearching Google is not a good source of truth either; especially their infoboxes which have been infamously and dangerously wrong. And if you follow a random search result link - well, who knows if the content on that site is trustworthy either!
- Mentlo 3y agoBut you’re in control of your information retrieval, you didn’t have an unreliable agent synthesise bits in the middle. Again - to each their own. But what people use google for GPT doesn’t replicate anyway (and what the Google business was built on) - which is commercial info retrieval.
- hilux 3y agoAs of a recent update, ChatGPT can do an internet search to answer "find a Thai restaurant near me." Of course, it uses Bing, not Google. And for my single query above, ChatGPT searched multiple sources, aggregated the results, and offered a summary and recommendations, which is a lot more than Google would have done. ChatGPT's major current limitation is that it just refuses to answer certain questions [what is the email address for person.name?] or gets very woke with some other answers.
- Racing0461 3y agothe ad ridden shitware website filled with seo buzzwords with 100% opacity keywords also isn't a good source of truth. i'll take chatgpt over that.
- 3y ago
- ssnistfajen 3y agoEven if OpenAI implodes it will hardly impact other LLM-focused startups. In fact it would probably be a boon for them as people search for GPT alternatives. Sam & Greg could start a new AI company by Monday and instantly achieve unicorn valuation. Hardly a burst.
- JCharante 3y agoHonestly this is exciting. Are they going to be the first company to achieve a $1 Billion evaluation within 3 days? Would they file the incorporation papers on Monday meaning they get that valuation within 24 hours?
- Rastonbury 3y agoThis is almost certain to happen if they can snag the talent, I bet his phone is blowing up with VCs right now, revenge move and now unshackled from a non-profit nature of OpenAI
- gdiamos 3y agoWhere are they going to get the compute or the data?
- uh_uh 3y ago> I agree AI is useful, but not to that extent to what it is valued on the market. I agree, it's greatly undervalued!
- manojlds 3y agoDotcom bubble...was/is the internet not useful?
- huytersd 3y agoIt doesn’t feel the same since there are a handful of players in the space. I see your point though.
- treyfitty 3y agoWas the housing market a bubble if millions of people lived in it and spent 75% of their time in it?
- mi3law 3y agoIt can be useful in certain contexts, most certainly as a code co-pilot, but that and yours/others' usage doesn't change the fundamental mismatch between the limits of this tech and what Sam and others have hyped it up to do. We've already trained it on all the data there is, it's not going to get "smarter" and it'll always lack true subjective understanding, so the overhype has been real, indeed to bubble levels as per OP.
- svnt 3y agoI would appreciate another example where a major new communications technology peaks in its implementation within the first year after it is introduced to the market.
- mi3law 3y agoFTX / crypto, which just imploded last year. Look, I'm an AGI/AI researcher myself. I believe and bleed this stuff. AI is here to stay and is forever a part of computing in many ways. Sam Altman and others bastardized it by overhyping it to current levels, derailing real work. All the traction OpenAI has accumulated, outside of github copoilot / codex, is itself so far away from product-market fit that people are playing off the novelty of AGI / the GPT/AI being on its way to "smarter" than human rather than any real usage. Hype in tech is real. Overhype and bubbles are real. In AI in particular, there's been AI winters because of the overhype.
- svnt 3y agoIt seems we are talking about multiple different things. I never denied hype was a thing. You’re talking about hype cycles now. Previously it seemed like you said AI was not going to be advancing. LLMs are maybe headed into oversold territory, but LLMs are not the end of AI, even in the near term. They are just the UI front end.
- KaiserPro 3y ago> major new communications technology peaks in its implementation within the first year after it is introduced to the market. Peak is perhaps the wrong word, local maximum before falling into the Trough of Disillusionment.
- cheriot 3y agoYes, a bubble is a mismatch between price and value. Saying value > 0 is not disproving a bubble.
- mongol 3y agoIt is a bubble if it is overvalued. I don't think it is, but nothing prevents something useful from being a bubble, if the valuation is extreme.
- jsemrau 3y agoIs Mistral really a 2 Billion business after only 6 months? https://www.ft.com/content/387eeeab-1f95-4e3b-9217-6f69aeeb5399 https://www.ft.com/content/387eeeab-1f95-4e3b-9217-6f69aeeb5...
- saltmanfried 3y agoCalling chatbots AI is definitely a bubble
- smsm42 3y agoCould be. Housing bubble happened even though most people lived in houses and still do. It's all in price vs utility. If the former gets way ahead of the latter, and people start trading just on future price raises, you've got a bubble.
- onion2k 3y agoThere have been bubbles in the housing market in the past - houses are quite useful. It's a bubble if the valuation is inflated beyond a level compared to a reasonable expected future value. Usefulness isn't part of that. The important bit is 'reasonable', which is also the subjective bit.
- miohtama 3y agoElectric cars are useful as well, but still, most electric car startups are -90% down from the peak. A financial bubble does not mean the underlying product is bad.
- Sharlin 3y agoIf the compute is paid with imaginary hype money? Doesn’t matter how useful a service is if providing it turns out to be unsustainable.
- Tohhou 3y agoYou must not use AI if you think this. AI is not the bubble. Everything AI will replace is the bubble.
- lazystar 3y agoAI art is already boring. its all a fad, eventually the cracks start to show and you can't unsee those cracks. very similar to bitcoin. tbh.
- Tohhou 3y agoYou're one of the ones who used to call bitcoin "buttcoin" didn't you? Very sure of yourself, very wrong.
- carstenhag 3y agoSeeing btc is still quite useless apart from a few legitimate reasons, otherwise mostly being used for illegal purposes: yes, btc is a failure.
- lazystar 3y agoafter i lost everything in the mtgox scandal, i used my last bitcoin to buy a lenovo thinkpad, which i used to learn computer programming and network engineering.
- 9dev 3y agoOh, you mean because Bitcoin didn’t turn out as a stupidly-high risk speculation object without any value rooted in reality, wasting a sizeable portion of the power production of a world threatened by the climate crisis, swinging between orders of magnitude in valuation on Elon‘s whims? The Bitcoin that is irrelevant everywhere else but the crypto bubble itself?
- smcl 3y agoCome on man, we're all on the AI hype train now. Get with the program, you're one bubble behind!
- throw_m239339 3y agoI think something terrible happened at OpenAI and we just don't know what it is yet, we will eventually. But I believe something unethical happened, something that might be even illegal. For the board to remove the CEO, it means that the board doesn't trust him anymore.
- seydor 3y ago$MSFT might be down but all others are probably going to be up