9 ms·

Locations will become more difficult to find once society reaches 30% ev adoption, maybe even less. Much of the 100k mile maintenance programs is because people

Locations will become more difficult to find once society reaches 30% ev adoption, maybe even less. Much of the 100k mile maintenance programs is because people don't like making the choice.

gnicholas 3y ago
I'm not sure you understood my point. I was pointing out that oil changes are less frequent than this. I take my ICE in once every two years, and my PHEV even less than that. It may be true that when 30% of vehicles are EVs, oil change locations will be hard to find, but I doubt it. Even if dedicated oil change chains cease to exist, people will still need tires, alignment, etc, and those shops will presumably provide oil change services. Regardless, it's going to be a while before 30% of vehicles on the road are EVs — isn't it like 1-2% of new cars sold? If vehicles stay on the road for 20 years, then EVs won't be 30% of the total fleet for a long time.
- Symbiote 3y ago
  Globally, 10% of sales are EVs. For the European Union it's 12% and the United States 6%. The EU has a lot of variance (Sweden 32%) and I assume the USA does too. https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-vehicles-fastest https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-veh... Average car age in the EU is 12 years.
- zzzeek 3y ago
  You change your oil once every two years ? Do your cars die at 40k miles ? ICEs in my experience deteriorate pretty rapidly if you keep driving them on dirty oil
  - vel0city 3y ago
    Every two years for the average US car is like 26,000mi oil change interval. Insane they think an oil change every two years is normal.
    - bluGill 3y ago
      Synthetic oils can do that.
      - vel0city 3y ago
        No expert is going to suggest any normal car should operate for 26,000mi per oil change. Even modern synthetics and modern engines recommend 7,500 or so miles, and can often be stretched for a bit over 10,000mi, but 26,000mi as a normal interval is way beyond that. My modern car recommends synthetic changes at 7,500 miles by the book. Sending off samples to the labs, it looked good at that point but started to get some bad degradation at about 11,000mi. It would be sludge a little after 15,000mi and would have probably destroyed the engine before 25,000mi
        bluGill 3y ago
        Not all synthetics can do that of course, but some can. There are people who have gone several hundred thousand miles without an oil change and an oil analysis says they are still good. Oil analysis is about the cost of an oil change for most people and sometimes says change the oil so most people just change the oil. For some it makes sense to do oil analysis.
        vel0city 3y ago
        Please show me a single car manual for an ICE advising a 26,000mi oil change interval or any normal motor oil sold advertising its good for 26,000mi. Otherwise you're talking about extremely rare one-off cases where someone's car happened to be in just the right environment and built just perfectly the whole time. I'm not talking about "that one time one guy in a forum five years ago said his car lasted 120,000mi without an oil change", I'm talking about normal advice for normal car drivers.
        bluGill 3y ago
        https://www.amsoil.com/ https://www.amsoil.com/ their 25000 mile oil when combined with their bypass filter and regular oil tests. No OEM car manual says this is recommended.
  - gnicholas 3y ago
    We mostly drive our PHEV. The ICE gets maybe 4k miles/yr. I realize this is less than most, but my point was that changing oil every few months would be very uncommon (and either due to someone driving 20k mi/yr, or a misunderstanding about how frequently it’s needed).
    - vel0city 3y ago
      > I realize this is less than most, It's not just that it's a bit less, it's like a few standard deviations less. The average US car goes a hair over 13,000mi/yr.
- smileysteve 3y ago
  The stores I get tires from haven't offered auxiliary services for the last decade.
  - gnicholas 3y ago
    Agreed. My point was that the claim that it will become hard to get oil changes is laughable. Even if dedicated shops disappear, other places that offer adjacent services (and have lifts that would make it trivial to do oil changes) would start offering the service.
    - vel0city 3y ago
      If oil change places start to disappear the cost for an oil change is going to go way up. Just about any shop will give you an oil change today, see how much more expensive they'll charge for their master certified mechanic to change your oil versus the barely trained fresh out of highschool grad that still needs to always stop and say "lefty loosey..." every time they pick up a wrench.
      - gnicholas 3y ago
        I don't follow. You think there won't be barely-trained people working in auto shops? The people who put put on tires and do alignments would be pretty similar to the people who do oil changes. They'll just do oil changes in addition to putting on tires.
        vel0city 3y ago
        Yeah, and go to a shop like that and see their prices compared to the places that only do oil changes. They're usually twice the labor price compared to low cost oil change places in my experience. Even just putting the car on the lift and jacking it up is already more work, requires more training, and has more risk than having someone in the pit at a fast oil change place.
        3y ago

Locations will become more difficult to find once society reaches 30% ev adoption, maybe even less. Much of the 100k mile maintenance programs is because people don't like making the choice.

gnicholas 3y ago

I'm not sure you understood my point. I was pointing out that oil changes are less frequent than this. I take my ICE in once every two years, and my PHEV even less than that. It may be true that when 30% of vehicles are EVs, oil change locations will be hard to find, but I doubt it. Even if dedicated oil change chains cease to exist, people will still need tires, alignment, etc, and those shops will presumably provide oil change services. Regardless, it's going to be a while before 30% of vehicles on the road are EVs — isn't it like 1-2% of new cars sold? If vehicles stay on the road for 20 years, then EVs won't be 30% of the total fleet for a long time.

Symbiote 3y ago
Globally, 10% of sales are EVs. For the European Union it's 12% and the United States 6%. The EU has a lot of variance (Sweden 32%) and I assume the USA does too. https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-vehicles-fastest https://www.wri.org/insights/countries-adopting-electric-veh... Average car age in the EU is 12 years.
zzzeek 3y ago
You change your oil once every two years ? Do your cars die at 40k miles ? ICEs in my experience deteriorate pretty rapidly if you keep driving them on dirty oil
- vel0city 3y ago
  Every two years for the average US car is like 26,000mi oil change interval. Insane they think an oil change every two years is normal.
  - bluGill 3y ago
    Synthetic oils can do that.
    - vel0city 3y ago
      No expert is going to suggest any normal car should operate for 26,000mi per oil change. Even modern synthetics and modern engines recommend 7,500 or so miles, and can often be stretched for a bit over 10,000mi, but 26,000mi as a normal interval is way beyond that. My modern car recommends synthetic changes at 7,500 miles by the book. Sending off samples to the labs, it looked good at that point but started to get some bad degradation at about 11,000mi. It would be sludge a little after 15,000mi and would have probably destroyed the engine before 25,000mi
      - bluGill 3y ago
        Not all synthetics can do that of course, but some can. There are people who have gone several hundred thousand miles without an oil change and an oil analysis says they are still good. Oil analysis is about the cost of an oil change for most people and sometimes says change the oil so most people just change the oil. For some it makes sense to do oil analysis.
        vel0city 3y ago
        Please show me a single car manual for an ICE advising a 26,000mi oil change interval or any normal motor oil sold advertising its good for 26,000mi. Otherwise you're talking about extremely rare one-off cases where someone's car happened to be in just the right environment and built just perfectly the whole time. I'm not talking about "that one time one guy in a forum five years ago said his car lasted 120,000mi without an oil change", I'm talking about normal advice for normal car drivers.
        bluGill 3y ago
        https://www.amsoil.com/ https://www.amsoil.com/ their 25000 mile oil when combined with their bypass filter and regular oil tests. No OEM car manual says this is recommended.
- gnicholas 3y ago
  We mostly drive our PHEV. The ICE gets maybe 4k miles/yr. I realize this is less than most, but my point was that changing oil every few months would be very uncommon (and either due to someone driving 20k mi/yr, or a misunderstanding about how frequently it’s needed).
  - vel0city 3y ago
    > I realize this is less than most, It's not just that it's a bit less, it's like a few standard deviations less. The average US car goes a hair over 13,000mi/yr.
smileysteve 3y ago
The stores I get tires from haven't offered auxiliary services for the last decade.
- gnicholas 3y ago
  Agreed. My point was that the claim that it will become hard to get oil changes is laughable. Even if dedicated shops disappear, other places that offer adjacent services (and have lifts that would make it trivial to do oil changes) would start offering the service.
  - vel0city 3y ago
    If oil change places start to disappear the cost for an oil change is going to go way up. Just about any shop will give you an oil change today, see how much more expensive they'll charge for their master certified mechanic to change your oil versus the barely trained fresh out of highschool grad that still needs to always stop and say "lefty loosey..." every time they pick up a wrench.
    - gnicholas 3y ago
      I don't follow. You think there won't be barely-trained people working in auto shops? The people who put put on tires and do alignments would be pretty similar to the people who do oil changes. They'll just do oil changes in addition to putting on tires.
      - vel0city 3y ago
        Yeah, and go to a shop like that and see their prices compared to the places that only do oil changes. They're usually twice the labor price compared to low cost oil change places in my experience. Even just putting the car on the lift and jacking it up is already more work, requires more training, and has more risk than having someone in the pit at a fast oil change place.
        3y ago