4 ms·

Except the machine isn't.

by devin 3y ago

nyolfen 3y ago
i would urge you to compare the current state of this question to appx one year ago
ben_w 3y ago
In this scenario, the question is not what exists today, but what the CEO thinks will exist before they stop being CEO.
jfengel 3y ago
I'd say it is. Not because the machine is so great but because most people suck. It was described as a "bullshit generator" in a post earlier today. I think that's accurate. I just also think it's an apt description of most people as well. It can replace a lot of jobs... and then we can turn it off, for a net benefit.
- civilized 3y ago
  This sort of comment has become a cliché that needs to be answered. Most people are not good at most things, yes. They're consumers of those things, not producers. For producers there is a much higher standard, one that the latest AI models don't come anywhere close to meeting. If you think they do, feel free to go buy options and bet on the world being taken over by GPUs.
  - cosmojg 3y ago
    > If you think they do, feel free to go buy options and bet on the world being taken over by GPUs. This assumes too much. GPUs may not hold the throne for long, especially given the amount of money being thrown at ASICs and other special-purpose ICs. Besides, as with the Internet, it's likely that AI adoption will benefit industries in an unpredictable manner, leaving little alpha for direct bets like you're suggesting.
  - jfengel 3y ago
    I'm not betting on the gpus. I'm betting that whole categories of labor will disappear. They're preserved because we insist that people work, but we don't actually need the product of that labor. AI may figure into that, filling in some work that does have to be done. But it need not be for any of those jobs that actually require humans for the foreseeable future -- arts of all sorts and other human connections. This isn't about predicting the dominance of machines. It's about asking what it is we really want to do as humans.
    - cafeoh 3y ago
      So you think AI will force a push out of economic growth? I'm really not sure how this makes sense. As you've said a lot of labor these day is mostly useless, but the reason it's still here is not ideological but because our economy can't survive without growth (useless can still have some market value, of course). If you think that somehow AI displacing actual useful labor will create a big economic shift (as would be needed) I'd be curious to know what you think that shift would be.
      - komali2 3y ago
        > but the reason it's still here is not ideological but because our economy can't survive without growth Isn't this ideological though? The economy can definitely survive without growth, if we change from the idea that a human's existence needs to be justified by labor and move away from a capitalist mode of organization. If your first thought is "gross, commies!" doesn't that just demonstrate that the issue is indeed ideological?
        cafeoh 3y ago
        By "our economy" I meant capitalism. I was pointing out that I sincerely doubt that AI replacing existing useful labor (which it is doing and will keep doing, of course) will naturally transition us away from this mode of production. Of course if you're a gross commie I'm sure you'd agree since AI, like any other mean of production, will remain first and foremost a tool in the hands of the dominant class, and while using AI for emancipation is possible, it won't happen naturally through the free market.
- SamPatt 3y ago
  It's not a bullshit generator unless you ask it for bullshit. It's amazing at troubleshooting technical problems. I use it daily, I cannot understand how anyone dismisses it if they've used it in good faith for anything technical.
- numpad0 3y ago
  I’d bet it won’t. A lot of people and services are paid and billed by man-hours spent and not by output. Even values of tangible objects are traced to man-hours spent. Utility of output is mere modifier. What I believe will happen is, eventually we’ll be paying and get paid for depressing a do-everything button, and machines will have their own economy that isn’t on USD.

Except the machine isn't.

by devin 3y ago

Except the machine isn't.

nyolfen 3y ago

i would urge you to compare the current state of this question to appx one year ago

ben_w 3y ago

In this scenario, the question is not what exists today, but what the CEO thinks will exist before they stop being CEO.

jfengel 3y ago

I'd say it is. Not because the machine is so great but because most people suck. It was described as a "bullshit generator" in a post earlier today. I think that's accurate. I just also think it's an apt description of most people as well. It can replace a lot of jobs... and then we can turn it off, for a net benefit.

civilized 3y ago
This sort of comment has become a cliché that needs to be answered. Most people are not good at most things, yes. They're consumers of those things, not producers. For producers there is a much higher standard, one that the latest AI models don't come anywhere close to meeting. If you think they do, feel free to go buy options and bet on the world being taken over by GPUs.
- cosmojg 3y ago
  > If you think they do, feel free to go buy options and bet on the world being taken over by GPUs. This assumes too much. GPUs may not hold the throne for long, especially given the amount of money being thrown at ASICs and other special-purpose ICs. Besides, as with the Internet, it's likely that AI adoption will benefit industries in an unpredictable manner, leaving little alpha for direct bets like you're suggesting.
- jfengel 3y ago
  I'm not betting on the gpus. I'm betting that whole categories of labor will disappear. They're preserved because we insist that people work, but we don't actually need the product of that labor. AI may figure into that, filling in some work that does have to be done. But it need not be for any of those jobs that actually require humans for the foreseeable future -- arts of all sorts and other human connections. This isn't about predicting the dominance of machines. It's about asking what it is we really want to do as humans.
  - cafeoh 3y ago
    So you think AI will force a push out of economic growth? I'm really not sure how this makes sense. As you've said a lot of labor these day is mostly useless, but the reason it's still here is not ideological but because our economy can't survive without growth (useless can still have some market value, of course). If you think that somehow AI displacing actual useful labor will create a big economic shift (as would be needed) I'd be curious to know what you think that shift would be.
    - komali2 3y ago
      > but the reason it's still here is not ideological but because our economy can't survive without growth Isn't this ideological though? The economy can definitely survive without growth, if we change from the idea that a human's existence needs to be justified by labor and move away from a capitalist mode of organization. If your first thought is "gross, commies!" doesn't that just demonstrate that the issue is indeed ideological?
      - cafeoh 3y ago
        By "our economy" I meant capitalism. I was pointing out that I sincerely doubt that AI replacing existing useful labor (which it is doing and will keep doing, of course) will naturally transition us away from this mode of production. Of course if you're a gross commie I'm sure you'd agree since AI, like any other mean of production, will remain first and foremost a tool in the hands of the dominant class, and while using AI for emancipation is possible, it won't happen naturally through the free market.
SamPatt 3y ago
It's not a bullshit generator unless you ask it for bullshit. It's amazing at troubleshooting technical problems. I use it daily, I cannot understand how anyone dismisses it if they've used it in good faith for anything technical.
numpad0 3y ago
I’d bet it won’t. A lot of people and services are paid and billed by man-hours spent and not by output. Even values of tangible objects are traced to man-hours spent. Utility of output is mere modifier. What I believe will happen is, eventually we’ll be paying and get paid for depressing a do-everything button, and machines will have their own economy that isn’t on USD.