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It's good that the batteries are many times smaller than electric cars and trucks. I still have a problem with the accounting being focused on what the consumer

by uoaei 3y ago

It's good that the batteries are many times smaller than electric cars and trucks. I still have a problem with the accounting being focused on what the consumer directly experiences rather than the full lifecycle of the vehicle (manufacturing, logistics of vehicle and spare parts, and disposal) but I don't think it changes the conclusions much except maybe a minor edit to the ranking by kilometer-people per ton of CO2e emitted when compared to other forms of transportation. I did the math on my 2000s Jeep and I would need to drive it for about 20,000 miles (5 years of usage in my case) in order just to emit the same as the production of a single Model S battery, not including building the rest of the car and bringing it to the consumer. I think we could do a lot better to emphasize buying used cars/bikes/everything especially if we reorient the accounting to reflect the emissions that consumers are typically insulated from. Frontloading our emissions kind of defeats the purpose of Nordhaus-style climate economics accounting...

cogman10 3y ago
20k miles in 5 years of ownership? That's well below average mileage (13k miles for 1 year is average). But further, if you want to talk about lifecycle, then why not consider a used Model S (or other ev) with 20k miles? It's not like EVs suddenly explode and need to be junked after 20k miles. The CO2 payoff period for an EV is around 25k miles, after that every mile driven on an EV ends up being less emissions wise than a regular ICE. Add to this the fact that EVs have extended lifetimes compared to ICE. 300 or 500k miles is more than possible with today's EVs.
- uoaei 3y ago
  > That's well below average mileage Hence the emphasis here and in other comments about finding ways to use cars less. I diverted an entire vehicle from the dump rather than buying new and requiring additional CO2 emissions in that production process. It suits my lifestyle well. I could have bought a used EV but this car was free to me (after cost of spare parts) and I learned a lot about how to work on cars getting it up and running again. Plus sometimes I'll need to tow stuff. Regarding payoff: My research says 5-8 years on average (12k miles per year) after accounting for production and emissions (generation for EV, gas for ICE), so I'm curious to know where you get your data. > 300 or 500k miles is more than possible with today's EVs. I'd like to see empirical studies on this but I suspect the sample size of EVs with that kind of mileage is too small at this point. It's well known that EV batteries degrade faster than expected, aside from early year Prius hybrid and later Leaf batteries which seem to be holding up well for some reason. So even if the car lasts, you may have replaced the battery multiple times already. None of this even accounts for microplastic production from tire and road wear, which goes as the fourth power of the vehicle mass. EVs obviously on the losing side of that vs bicycles, ebikes, even small ICEs.
  - cogman10 3y ago
    > Regarding payoff: My research says 5-8 years on average (12k miles per year) after accounting for production and emissions (generation for EV, gas for ICE), so I'm curious to know where you get your data. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc This is actually really common data. I'm curious to know where you got yours. > I'd like to see empirical studies on this but I suspect the sample size of EVs with that kind of mileage is too small at this point. https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/8-lessons-about-ev-battery-health-from-6300-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/8-lessons-about-ev-battery-he... > It's well known that EV batteries degrade faster than expected, aside from early year Prius hybrid and later Leaf batteries which seem to be holding up well for some reason. So even if the car lasts, you may have replaced the battery multiple times already. Well known by who? Leaf batteries degraded fast because they had no active cooling mechanism. That changed in 2016, which is why later Leaf batteries have held up well. Any EV car you buy today that was manufactured in the last 7 years has active cooling. Leaf was one of the last to adopt it. Anecdotally, I drive a 2018 model 3 with 120k miles on it. The battery has degraded by 5% (310 miles to 296). > None of this even accounts for microplastic production from tire and road wear, which goes as the fourth power of the vehicle mass. EVs obviously on the losing side of that vs bicycles, ebikes, even small ICEs. Agree. But I'm not sure that microplastic production is something to really be concerned with. Unless we are talking about transitioning to more public transport, it's a secondary issue vs CO2 production.
    - uoaei 3y ago
      > https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc Very interesting!! Especially Fig. 5. Thanks for the link. Summary: * ICE vs battery crossover at 18k-24k miles (1.5-2.0 years avg usage) and Hybrid vs battery crossover approx 36k-48k miles (3-4 years avg usage). Reducing car usage obviously extends those timelines. * ICE with 12k-18k miles is equal to battery with 0 miles, Hybrid with 18k-24k miles is equal to battery with 0 miles. Temperature and energy generation sources affect the calculations quite a bit by region regarding engine and battery efficiency and cleanliness of generation sources. Appreciate your inputs, updating my priors.

by uoaei 3y ago

cogman10 3y ago

20k miles in 5 years of ownership? That's well below average mileage (13k miles for 1 year is average). But further, if you want to talk about lifecycle, then why not consider a used Model S (or other ev) with 20k miles? It's not like EVs suddenly explode and need to be junked after 20k miles. The CO2 payoff period for an EV is around 25k miles, after that every mile driven on an EV ends up being less emissions wise than a regular ICE. Add to this the fact that EVs have extended lifetimes compared to ICE. 300 or 500k miles is more than possible with today's EVs.

uoaei 3y ago
> That's well below average mileage Hence the emphasis here and in other comments about finding ways to use cars less. I diverted an entire vehicle from the dump rather than buying new and requiring additional CO2 emissions in that production process. It suits my lifestyle well. I could have bought a used EV but this car was free to me (after cost of spare parts) and I learned a lot about how to work on cars getting it up and running again. Plus sometimes I'll need to tow stuff. Regarding payoff: My research says 5-8 years on average (12k miles per year) after accounting for production and emissions (generation for EV, gas for ICE), so I'm curious to know where you get your data. > 300 or 500k miles is more than possible with today's EVs. I'd like to see empirical studies on this but I suspect the sample size of EVs with that kind of mileage is too small at this point. It's well known that EV batteries degrade faster than expected, aside from early year Prius hybrid and later Leaf batteries which seem to be holding up well for some reason. So even if the car lasts, you may have replaced the battery multiple times already. None of this even accounts for microplastic production from tire and road wear, which goes as the fourth power of the vehicle mass. EVs obviously on the losing side of that vs bicycles, ebikes, even small ICEs.
- cogman10 3y ago
  > Regarding payoff: My research says 5-8 years on average (12k miles per year) after accounting for production and emissions (generation for EV, gas for ICE), so I'm curious to know where you get your data. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc This is actually really common data. I'm curious to know where you got yours. > I'd like to see empirical studies on this but I suspect the sample size of EVs with that kind of mileage is too small at this point. https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/8-lessons-about-ev-battery-health-from-6300-electric-cars/ https://electrek.co/2019/12/14/8-lessons-about-ev-battery-he... > It's well known that EV batteries degrade faster than expected, aside from early year Prius hybrid and later Leaf batteries which seem to be holding up well for some reason. So even if the car lasts, you may have replaced the battery multiple times already. Well known by who? Leaf batteries degraded fast because they had no active cooling mechanism. That changed in 2016, which is why later Leaf batteries have held up well. Any EV car you buy today that was manufactured in the last 7 years has active cooling. Leaf was one of the last to adopt it. Anecdotally, I drive a 2018 model 3 with 120k miles on it. The battery has degraded by 5% (310 miles to 296). > None of this even accounts for microplastic production from tire and road wear, which goes as the fourth power of the vehicle mass. EVs obviously on the losing side of that vs bicycles, ebikes, even small ICEs. Agree. But I'm not sure that microplastic production is something to really be concerned with. Unless we are talking about transitioning to more public transport, it's a secondary issue vs CO2 production.
  - uoaei 3y ago
    > https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac7cfc Very interesting!! Especially Fig. 5. Thanks for the link. Summary: * ICE vs battery crossover at 18k-24k miles (1.5-2.0 years avg usage) and Hybrid vs battery crossover approx 36k-48k miles (3-4 years avg usage). Reducing car usage obviously extends those timelines. * ICE with 12k-18k miles is equal to battery with 0 miles, Hybrid with 18k-24k miles is equal to battery with 0 miles. Temperature and energy generation sources affect the calculations quite a bit by region regarding engine and battery efficiency and cleanliness of generation sources. Appreciate your inputs, updating my priors.