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Western countries have started strategic plans to become less dependent on Chinese manufacturing and especially the Chinese dominance in electronics manufactur
by 0xDEF 3y ago
Western countries have started strategic plans to become less dependent on Chinese manufacturing and especially the Chinese dominance in electronics manufacturing.
For such plans to succeed it is important to not mix them up with rural/flyover state job creation programs. One reason Chinese manufacturing has been a runaway succes is because how close their factories are to big cities and technical universities.
A future German Shenzen should be close to a big city with many technical universities nearby. A future American Shenzen should a stone throw away from Silicon Valley.
- ajmurmann 3y agoI agree on the notion. I do wonder though if a US Shenzhen needs to be close to SV. It would be ideal, but given how hard it is to build anything in SV, I wonder if a places like Austin would be a solid solution to consolidate hardware manufacturing.
- chaostheory 3y agoIf the US federal government bans noncompetes nationwide, then we’ll get a true competitor or successor to Silicon Valley. Until then, there’s little chance of any US metro to usurp it unless states like TX ban it themselves
- corethree 3y agoManufacturing in the US will never be as good as china. Those attempts at moving jobs here are ultimately attempts at failure. The most likely scenario is that companies are trying to find some other country to exploit.
- ajmurmann 3y agoWhat do you mean by "good"? Quality, versatility, speed, price?
- Dalewyn 3y agoPrice: Cost of labor is still orders of magnitudes cheaper in China. Quality: The west has the better part of a century's worth of catching up to do in know-how. Speed: See above. Also tighter government regulations, for better or worse. Versatility: See above. As it turns out, dumping domestic manufacturing capability didn't come without significant costs.
- ajmurmann 3y agoThis seems largely true. I do wonder about "The west has the better part of a century's worth of catching up to do in know-how.". Does this truly extend to the West? Manufacturing in Germany seems alive and very healthy for more advanced products. Not sure about other European countries. I also understand that Mexico actually is very good for high value-add manufacturing.
- corethree 3y agoThe intersection of all three. The overall metric. Obviously if we make everything expensive and take 3x longer we can do better in the quality category. But attempting to move at the same speed will make us do things at a lower quality and/or higher price. Also we likely don't even have the ability to move as fast as china.
- edgyquant 3y agoChinas manufacturing is only “good” because we offshored US manufacturing to it. Undoing this will result in the US regaining this capacity. You can make arguments about pricing, but luckily the political class is realizing there are more important things.
- corethree 3y agoNo the US will never move or learn as fast as china. It's just the overall mentality there you have to see it to know what I mean. Look up what Elon musk has to say about China. He gets it because he's seen it.
- discard124 3y agoOr he’s just saying what he needs to say to negotiate access to the market.
- corethree 3y agoNo. He can keep silent and still have access to the market. There's no incentive to make him say it.
- discard124 3y ago> No. He can keep silent and still have access to the market. Can he? Are you an expert on what it takes to gain the Chinese government's approval, or the continuing goodwill needed for massive capital projects?
- corethree 3y agoOf course he can. What makes a business have government approval is two things. 1. economic viability. 2. No visible opinion against China. Your saying there's something else: 3. Visible support FOR China. Number 3 is not required. You don't see Marvel movies and hollywood pandering to Chinas greatness do you? You only see an absense of dissent against China. Here take a look at the clip. We all have the ability to judge tonality and the detail Elon puts into that statement to make the qualitative judgement call whether he's pandering or he believes in what he says: https://youtu.be/JN3KPFbWCy8?t=1308 https://youtu.be/JN3KPFbWCy8?t=1308 Also one day I recommend you go to China and see what's going on there with your own eyes. It's like going to Yosemite half dome vs. looking at pictures of it. The difference between the US and China will floor you.
- matheusmoreira 3y ago> Manufacturing in the US will never be as good as china. There's a very entertaining book called "Poorly Made in China" that will quickly disabuse you of such notions.
- corethree 3y agoSummarize the findings here and cite the actual evidence if you can. Throwing a random book recommendation that I have to purchase to read is something that just doesn't move the conversational needle if you know what I mean.
- discard124 3y agoHow about you go first. You didn’t even provide a book recommendation to support your claim.
- corethree 3y agoNo I provided reasoning. Better to provide reasoning then cite some reasoning that can't be read because I'm not going to spend money to buy a book.
- discard124 3y agoActually you didn't provide any reasoning. You just made a statement without any supporting logic.
- corethree 3y agoStatements are reasoning. You can't transfer logical information without making a statement. Anything is better then a link that can't be read. That offers nothing it's even lower then just a "statement" This is getting into combative territory here. We both need to end it.
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- obblekk 3y agoUnlike China, the US has prioritized decentralized growth for centuries. Throughout the Midwest, there are excellent research universities, large industrial manufacturers, and smart hardworking people. It would be folly to try and relocate existing expertise into a concentrated area already struggling with crowding.
- pixl97 3y agoAlso geography makes the US different, and very successful. China concentrated growth near the oceans because it's rivers were rather wild and dangerous. Also the farther you go west in China, the more rugged and desert like the country is. Meanwhile the US has two different coasts. It also has a central portion with a river that is good for transport of goods. This as you say, decentralizes the country and massively lowers the risk of any one event knocking manufacturing out in the country.
- narrator 3y agoThey used to have plenty of chip plants in Silicon Valley. There's also tons of toxic waste to cleanup[1]. Maybe they should open these plants in the Mojave desert in places like Trona or near the Salton Sea that are already screwed environmentally. The problem is smart people who make a lot of money have to want to live nearby to physical stuff there. [1] https://qz.com/1017181/silicon-valley-pollution-there-are-more-superfund-sites-in-santa-clara-than-any-other-us-county https://qz.com/1017181/silicon-valley-pollution-there-are-mo...
- orochimaaru 3y agoChinese don’t have labor laws. It makes it easy to suppress wages, curtail benefits and have extremely stressful conditions in the name of “nation building”. All big cities in the US are heavily democratic and most have fairly solid Union representation. You could partner with unions and universities to achieve those goals. But most corporations and unions look at each other in adversarial terms not collaborative. So, until that mindset changes you have the flyover state job creation. Those are the only places where corporations can get the labor price points and control they desire. Either way there is no way the west is going to be able to match Chinese prices with existing labor laws. I’m not advocating against unions. I’m saying the west needs to add tariffs on Chinese goods to account for disparity in labor laws and protect its workforce.
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- georgeplusplus 3y agoIts weird to hear " future american shenzhen". that already exists and is called silicone valley. Guangzhou is the manufacture powerhouse of china. Which is, a stone throw from its silicon Valley, shenzhen. But I believe shenzhen as a tech hub was selected for proximity to Hong Kong not because of Guangzhou. Source: lived in China
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- ajmurmann 3y agoShenzhen is known for hardware manufacturing while SV is known now for software. Is this not correct?
- georgeplusplus 3y agoI wouldn't say that. The fabrication of circuit boards or chips is certainly not something shenzhen is known for. Tencent and DJI is headquartered there for instance.
- fakedang 3y ago> A future American Shenzen should a stone throw away from Silicon Valley. Lol, heck no. Silicon Valley isn't the center of the universe, and certainly not for manufacturing, even low end electronics. There are many good schools other than Stanford and Berkeley too, you know. Best part? There are good schools all across America.