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> there's no reason to try and prove this wrong Well, there is one reason: If Uruguay can do it, then it clearly demonstrates how blitheringly incompetent West

> there's no reason to try and prove this wrong Well, there is one reason: If Uruguay can do it, then it clearly demonstrates how blitheringly incompetent Western leaders are. It shows how horrifically pointless our oil wars have been (outside of making the instigators even wealthier), and nullifies each and every bullshit argument of the fossil fuel industry completely. Some numbers: Uruguay has $20k GDP per capita, compared to the US' $76k - basically a quarter of the wealth.

paiute 3y ago
Hydro power… it’s like 50% of their power. Then wind, then biomass, then solar.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  China has deployed more wind power this year than the UK's total aggregate generation capacity, and double US total aggregate solar generation. Yes, South America has a substantial amount of existing hydro power, but this is no excuse for developed world laggards. It is a choice to prioritize oil, gas, and other fossil fuel subsidies and infra support, but it is hopeless with global EV and renewables manufacturing flywheels coming up to speed (China is selling ~1 million EVs per month as of 2023Q4, solar PV manufacturing will reach 1TW next year). Just as Tesla (and BYD in China, credit where credit due) was the underdog and "David" until they rocketed passed legacy auto and became "Goliath", the same will happen to clean energy vs fossil tech. Like a recession, you're not going to be able to call it until looking back at trailing indicators. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/is-there-enough-global-wind-and-solar-pv-manufacturing-to-meet-net-zero-targets-in-2030 https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carbon-emissions-set-for-structural-decline-from-next-year https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carb... > The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020. > The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to... > China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are set to fall in 2024 and could be facing structural decline, due to record growth in the installation of new low-carbon energy sources. (my note: pedal to the floor, no one ever said "we have too much clean energy!")
  - zdragnar 3y ago
    When you have the benefit of being able to move millions of people by force to build a dam, and get to produce solar panels with slave labor, it's way easier.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Those are very bad things, no doubt whatsoever, but the data shows it is unnecessary for success. US solar and battery/storage manufacturing is exploding due to Inflation Reduction Act incentives, for example. Those bad things are not an excuse to not push scaling harder faster. Automation is a substantial component of solar and battery manufacturing, and you can build that automation with willing labor earning fair compensation. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/08/14/over-155-gw-of-u-s-solar-manufacturing-announced-in-one-year/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/08/14/over-155-gw-of-u-s-so... https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ira-at-1-us-heralds-clean-energy-manufacturing-renaissance-76610817 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... https://www.utilitydive.com/spons/ira-sets-the-stage-for-us-energy-storage-to-thrive/635665/ https://www.utilitydive.com/spons/ira-sets-the-stage-for-us-...
    - mandmandam 3y ago
      1 in 6 American workers stay in unwanted jobs just to keep their healthcare [0]. Is that so different? Americans will tell you with a straight face that giving people free college will affect the numbers joining the military - is that so different? Also, seems to me that the 8 trillion, with a t, dollars that were spent creating terror in the middle east would have bought a few panels. To compare directly, the highest estimate for transitioning the US to 100% renewable electricity is 5.7 trillion dollars [1]. So, if we'd just killed about 600,000 fewer civilians we could afford the change. Pointing fingers at China is easier than accepting our own actions, but you know, there's a lot to be said for taking responsibility for what one can actually change. 0 - https://news.gallup.com/poll/349094/workers-stay-unwanted-job-health-benefits.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/349094/workers-stay-unwanted-jo... 1 - https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/cost-of-transitioning-to-100-percent-renewable-energy/ https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/cost-of...
- dmoy 3y ago
  Yea but like parts of the PNW are >50% hydro too (Seattle is >80%), but they still haven't ever closed the gap to 100% for any significant length of time.
  - iamawacko 3y ago
    Seattle City Light, according to a 2016 report (and its definitely improved since), was 88% Hydro, 5% nuclear, and 4% wind. https://app.electricitymaps.com/map https://app.electricitymaps.com/map reports Seattle City Light as 100% hydro, fwiw.
  - lytfyre 3y ago
    BC Hydro (British Columbia electric power utility, government owned) was 98% renewable sources in 2022, ~91% of that hydro[1] - for the entire province. that last 2% is going to take a lot of work to replace, but I'd be surprised to see it backslide. [1] https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/corporate/accountability-reports/financial-reports/annual-reports/bc-hydro-quick-facts-2022-23.pdf https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/...
flavius29663 3y ago
When you have 50% of your electricity made using hydro-power, it's really easy to integrate as much renewable energy as you'd like. This is not even the best story, there are countries with close to 100% clean electricity, like Norway or Austria. It just doesn't scale that well for large countries where hydro can't amount to more than 10-20%.
- mandmandam 3y ago
  There's no reason to speculate, much less pronounce the transition impossible. Smart people have down the math. Transitioning the US to 100% clean power would cost - at most - $5.7 trillion. We spent $8 trillion fucking up the middle east for oil. Think about that - take all the time you need. Because if you still think this is about hydro access, and not leadership, you're holding up the change that is necessary.
  - gwright 3y ago
    I'd like to see some specifics in where you get the $5.7 trillion. More specifically how was the problem of intermittent power solved? I'm not aware of any grid-scale solution to this problem unless you include vast amounts of hydro to provide power when there is no wind or no sun or both.
  - flavius29663 3y ago
    > Because if you still think this is about hydro access, and not leadership I looked up the McKenzie report[1] where I think the 5.7 trillion comes from. In short, the renewable energy would be 1.5 trillion, and batteries 2.5 trillion (transmission is the rest). If you have 50% hydro, then you don't need batteries, so the cost for the US would drop by 2.5trillion. Having hydro is a big reason why some countries can do it easier than others. It's not a white and black situation, after-all, the US is already investing a lot in renewable energy. Second, the report says it provisioned for 900 "gigawatts" of batteries. If they mean GW rather than GWh (Which I think they do), that is not nearly enough, that is just 2000 GWh at today's prices. The US needs 500GWh on average each hour, so you only get batteries for 4 hours. You need to either build much more PV, or buy many more batteries. Also, 2000GWh is about 2 years worth of current global battery manufacturing. It's just not the same building out a small country or a large country electrical grid. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifting-u-s-to-100-percent-renewables-would-cost-4-5-trillion-analysis-finds https://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifting-u-s-to-100-percent-ren... That being said, it will happen, we'll soon switch to PV production, and it will happen faster than people think. It will be a disruption previously only seen in software. By 2030 we'll probably be pretty much powered by PV panels.

paiute 3y ago

Hydro power… it’s like 50% of their power. Then wind, then biomass, then solar.

toomuchtodo 3y ago
China has deployed more wind power this year than the UK's total aggregate generation capacity, and double US total aggregate solar generation. Yes, South America has a substantial amount of existing hydro power, but this is no excuse for developed world laggards. It is a choice to prioritize oil, gas, and other fossil fuel subsidies and infra support, but it is hopeless with global EV and renewables manufacturing flywheels coming up to speed (China is selling ~1 million EVs per month as of 2023Q4, solar PV manufacturing will reach 1TW next year). Just as Tesla (and BYD in China, credit where credit due) was the underdog and "David" until they rocketed passed legacy auto and became "Goliath", the same will happen to clean energy vs fossil tech. Like a recession, you're not going to be able to call it until looking back at trailing indicators. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023/is-there-enough-global-wind-and-solar-pv-manufacturing-to-meet-net-zero-targets-in-2030 https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-j... https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carbon-emissions-set-for-structural-decline-from-next-year https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/nov/13/chinas-carb... > The most striking growth has been in solar power, according to Myllyvirta. Solar installations increased by 210 gigawatts (GW) this year alone, which is twice the total solar capacity of the US and four times what China added in 2020. > The analysis, which is based on official figures and commercial data, found that China installed 70GW of wind power this year – more than the entire power generation capacity of the UK. It is also expected to add 7GW of hydro power and 3GW of nuclear power capacity this year, said the report. https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to-fall-in-2024-after-record-growth-in-clean-energy/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-emissions-set-to... > China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are set to fall in 2024 and could be facing structural decline, due to record growth in the installation of new low-carbon energy sources. (my note: pedal to the floor, no one ever said "we have too much clean energy!")
- zdragnar 3y ago
  When you have the benefit of being able to move millions of people by force to build a dam, and get to produce solar panels with slave labor, it's way easier.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Those are very bad things, no doubt whatsoever, but the data shows it is unnecessary for success. US solar and battery/storage manufacturing is exploding due to Inflation Reduction Act incentives, for example. Those bad things are not an excuse to not push scaling harder faster. Automation is a substantial component of solar and battery manufacturing, and you can build that automation with willing labor earning fair compensation. https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/08/14/over-155-gw-of-u-s-solar-manufacturing-announced-in-one-year/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/08/14/over-155-gw-of-u-s-so... https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/ira-at-1-us-heralds-clean-energy-manufacturing-renaissance-76610817 https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights... https://www.utilitydive.com/spons/ira-sets-the-stage-for-us-energy-storage-to-thrive/635665/ https://www.utilitydive.com/spons/ira-sets-the-stage-for-us-...
  - mandmandam 3y ago
    1 in 6 American workers stay in unwanted jobs just to keep their healthcare [0]. Is that so different? Americans will tell you with a straight face that giving people free college will affect the numbers joining the military - is that so different? Also, seems to me that the 8 trillion, with a t, dollars that were spent creating terror in the middle east would have bought a few panels. To compare directly, the highest estimate for transitioning the US to 100% renewable electricity is 5.7 trillion dollars [1]. So, if we'd just killed about 600,000 fewer civilians we could afford the change. Pointing fingers at China is easier than accepting our own actions, but you know, there's a lot to be said for taking responsibility for what one can actually change. 0 - https://news.gallup.com/poll/349094/workers-stay-unwanted-job-health-benefits.aspx https://news.gallup.com/poll/349094/workers-stay-unwanted-jo... 1 - https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/cost-of-transitioning-to-100-percent-renewable-energy/ https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/cost-of...
dmoy 3y ago
Yea but like parts of the PNW are >50% hydro too (Seattle is >80%), but they still haven't ever closed the gap to 100% for any significant length of time.
- iamawacko 3y ago
  Seattle City Light, according to a 2016 report (and its definitely improved since), was 88% Hydro, 5% nuclear, and 4% wind. https://app.electricitymaps.com/map https://app.electricitymaps.com/map reports Seattle City Light as 100% hydro, fwiw.
- lytfyre 3y ago
  BC Hydro (British Columbia electric power utility, government owned) was 98% renewable sources in 2022, ~91% of that hydro[1] - for the entire province. that last 2% is going to take a lot of work to replace, but I'd be surprised to see it backslide. [1] https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/documents/corporate/accountability-reports/financial-reports/annual-reports/bc-hydro-quick-facts-2022-23.pdf https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/...

flavius29663 3y ago

When you have 50% of your electricity made using hydro-power, it's really easy to integrate as much renewable energy as you'd like. This is not even the best story, there are countries with close to 100% clean electricity, like Norway or Austria. It just doesn't scale that well for large countries where hydro can't amount to more than 10-20%.

mandmandam 3y ago
There's no reason to speculate, much less pronounce the transition impossible. Smart people have down the math. Transitioning the US to 100% clean power would cost - at most - $5.7 trillion. We spent $8 trillion fucking up the middle east for oil. Think about that - take all the time you need. Because if you still think this is about hydro access, and not leadership, you're holding up the change that is necessary.
- gwright 3y ago
  I'd like to see some specifics in where you get the $5.7 trillion. More specifically how was the problem of intermittent power solved? I'm not aware of any grid-scale solution to this problem unless you include vast amounts of hydro to provide power when there is no wind or no sun or both.
- flavius29663 3y ago
  > Because if you still think this is about hydro access, and not leadership I looked up the McKenzie report[1] where I think the 5.7 trillion comes from. In short, the renewable energy would be 1.5 trillion, and batteries 2.5 trillion (transmission is the rest). If you have 50% hydro, then you don't need batteries, so the cost for the US would drop by 2.5trillion. Having hydro is a big reason why some countries can do it easier than others. It's not a white and black situation, after-all, the US is already investing a lot in renewable energy. Second, the report says it provisioned for 900 "gigawatts" of batteries. If they mean GW rather than GWh (Which I think they do), that is not nearly enough, that is just 2000 GWh at today's prices. The US needs 500GWh on average each hour, so you only get batteries for 4 hours. You need to either build much more PV, or buy many more batteries. Also, 2000GWh is about 2 years worth of current global battery manufacturing. It's just not the same building out a small country or a large country electrical grid. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifting-u-s-to-100-percent-renewables-would-cost-4-5-trillion-analysis-finds https://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifting-u-s-to-100-percent-ren... That being said, it will happen, we'll soon switch to PV production, and it will happen faster than people think. It will be a disruption previously only seen in software. By 2030 we'll probably be pretty much powered by PV panels.