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Look at that chart. "40% by 2025 (from 2022)". That's pretty impressive.

by olddustytrail 3y ago

SoftTalker 3y ago
Looks like I'll be waiting until at least 2035 to consider an EV or home solar system.
- thebruce87m 3y ago
  Why wait? You can get good deals on the second hand market now.
  - zdragnar 3y ago
    Why invest in second hand equipment now when new, warranted, more efficient versions will be the same price in a few years?
    - uoaei 3y ago
      In the case that opportunity cost calculations over the next few years dictate it, why wouldn't you buy now?
    - thebruce87m 3y ago
      Save money now on fuel. I used to spend £130/month on diesel. I now spend £30 on electricity. Save time, I used to spend time filling up my car. It now charges while I sleep.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      Total cost of ownership. Easy to model in Excel in 30-60 minutes.
- MostlyStable 3y ago
  So this is going to depend a lot on your driving habits, the cost of fuel in your area, the cost of electricity, and what kind of car you want/need, but I bought a new car earlier this year and the combination of those factors meant that an EV was cheaper than all comparable ICE vehicles (admittedly the EV was slightly smaller than we wanted and similar ICE vehicles would have better matched the size we wanted). The main thing is that the cost of fuel vs. the cost of electricity meant that we are saving ~$100/month and the difference in car payments for ICE vehicles vs EV was smaller than that. Although I'm pretty sure this only holds for new vs. new. The "used" market for EVs is almost non-existent and the savings you get is not nearly as large in used as it is for ICE. So if you are willing to buy used, then yes, ICE is still going to have an advantage for a while. But for new vehicles at least, modulo all those factors up above, it's already the case that some EVs are cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles.
  - Maxion 3y ago
    > So if you are willing to buy used, then yes, ICE is still going to have an advantage for a while. It does depend on where you are. In the Nordics an EV is definitely cheaper than even a used ICE. Biggest reason being the reduced fuel costs, but also lower tax.
  - worik 3y ago
    > The "used" market for EVs is almost non-existent Depends Here in New Zealand we get 3-year old ex Japanese vehicles at about half new price
    - xsmasher 3y ago
      In the US, a six year old Nissan Leaf goes for 2/3 of the price of a new one. It's a seller's market.
  - ff317 3y ago
    I can give a real datapoint: Family of 4 in TX, suburban neighborhood, and we drive a ton of mileage (~25-30K/year) running kids around town and the occasional roadtrips. ~2 years ago, we financed solar panels on the roof, and around the same time, bought a brand new Tesla Model Y. We came from a slightly-larger gas SUV before that. I also switched electricity plans, and opted for one with free nights (9p-9a) and a high rate during the day, which doesn't buy back any power from my solar, because the math works out better that way. So basically the car recharges for free overnight, and the solar helps offset a decent chunk of the daytime usage. When I net /everything/ out (electric bill changes, solar monthly bill, car payment swap, fuel, and maintenance costs), all total on average I'm coming out ~$700/month ahead from making these changes.
  - mike_hock 3y ago
    I'm guessing those "comparable" EVs don't actually compare on range on a full tank vs. range on a full battery. Or on depreciation. When some battery breakthrough finally hits the market and unfucks EVs so they don't weigh twice as much as regular vehicles to go half as far, then you'll be left with $1-2k worth of metal around a worthless battery that nobody will want to buy anymore.
- skhameneh 3y ago
  I would recommend getting quotes for solar from EnergySage and consider going without a battery. Incentives and prices will vary over time. While there is new "tech" for solar in the pipeline, it will take time to reach market. As prices decrease, incentives will as well. Be mindful of how incentives and financing may stack, EnergySage will provide all the info you need to make an informed decision.
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    > EnergySage I love it. Went there, and it gave me two options. One with a 17.2 year payback, and a second where I get a loan and my 20 year savings are -$27K. Ha! Seems like they should just replace that second option with "we calculated this one and it turns out you'd lose a bunch of money, it's not feasible." Alas, 17.2 years is longer than my current roof has left before replacement, and almost certainly longer than I'll live here. Maybe the next house. Especially since I'm thinking of moving somewhere with enough open land that I can just DIY a nice ground-mount setup instead of mucking about with holes in the roof.
    - jandrese 3y ago
      "Solar Loans" are pretty much always a bad idea. Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are even worse. If you can't buy the system outright consider getting a Home Equity loan. This is exactly the sort of thing they are designed for and have much less overhead than any other option. In the US we suffer from high demand in a small market allowing installers to inflate the system prices considerably. We should be paying less than $2/watt installed, but you see quotes for like $4-$8/watt all the time because these companies get to pick their customers.
      - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
        > We should be paying less than $2/watt installed Hmm, not sure how much prices have changed, but I installed my own ground mount 7kW array(s) back in 2020, and that was right around $2/watt with me doing all the work except a concrete mixer dump session for the footings.
- marssaxman 3y ago
  I can understand waiting on an EV, but why wait on solar? An EPA subsidized "energy efficiency" loan will cover the cost of the installation, with a payment lower than your power bill. You save money immediately and break even in ~7 years. I had solar panels installed a little over ten years ago, for environmental reasons, and I was surprised to learn that the economics were already good enough to make it work out as a benefit in purely financial terms. Equipment has only gotten better since then.
  - fbdab103 3y ago
    There are a ton of factors that go into making solar a sound decision. Will the person plan on living there for the next 5-10 years? Will installation costs finally start falling three years from now? Will the government institute a large grid connection fee so as to significantly impact payback periods? Is the roof going to need replacement within the next 10 years?
  - elzbardico 3y ago
    Net metering is in practice a subsidy for solar owners and probably won't last long. Without net metering things are not as good.

Look at that chart. "40% by 2025 (from 2022)". That's pretty impressive.

SoftTalker 3y ago

Looks like I'll be waiting until at least 2035 to consider an EV or home solar system.

thebruce87m 3y ago
Why wait? You can get good deals on the second hand market now.
- zdragnar 3y ago
  Why invest in second hand equipment now when new, warranted, more efficient versions will be the same price in a few years?
  - uoaei 3y ago
    In the case that opportunity cost calculations over the next few years dictate it, why wouldn't you buy now?
  - thebruce87m 3y ago
    Save money now on fuel. I used to spend £130/month on diesel. I now spend £30 on electricity. Save time, I used to spend time filling up my car. It now charges while I sleep.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    Total cost of ownership. Easy to model in Excel in 30-60 minutes.
MostlyStable 3y ago
So this is going to depend a lot on your driving habits, the cost of fuel in your area, the cost of electricity, and what kind of car you want/need, but I bought a new car earlier this year and the combination of those factors meant that an EV was cheaper than all comparable ICE vehicles (admittedly the EV was slightly smaller than we wanted and similar ICE vehicles would have better matched the size we wanted). The main thing is that the cost of fuel vs. the cost of electricity meant that we are saving ~$100/month and the difference in car payments for ICE vehicles vs EV was smaller than that. Although I'm pretty sure this only holds for new vs. new. The "used" market for EVs is almost non-existent and the savings you get is not nearly as large in used as it is for ICE. So if you are willing to buy used, then yes, ICE is still going to have an advantage for a while. But for new vehicles at least, modulo all those factors up above, it's already the case that some EVs are cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles.
- Maxion 3y ago
  > So if you are willing to buy used, then yes, ICE is still going to have an advantage for a while. It does depend on where you are. In the Nordics an EV is definitely cheaper than even a used ICE. Biggest reason being the reduced fuel costs, but also lower tax.
- worik 3y ago
  > The "used" market for EVs is almost non-existent Depends Here in New Zealand we get 3-year old ex Japanese vehicles at about half new price
  - xsmasher 3y ago
    In the US, a six year old Nissan Leaf goes for 2/3 of the price of a new one. It's a seller's market.
- ff317 3y ago
  I can give a real datapoint: Family of 4 in TX, suburban neighborhood, and we drive a ton of mileage (~25-30K/year) running kids around town and the occasional roadtrips. ~2 years ago, we financed solar panels on the roof, and around the same time, bought a brand new Tesla Model Y. We came from a slightly-larger gas SUV before that. I also switched electricity plans, and opted for one with free nights (9p-9a) and a high rate during the day, which doesn't buy back any power from my solar, because the math works out better that way. So basically the car recharges for free overnight, and the solar helps offset a decent chunk of the daytime usage. When I net /everything/ out (electric bill changes, solar monthly bill, car payment swap, fuel, and maintenance costs), all total on average I'm coming out ~$700/month ahead from making these changes.
- mike_hock 3y ago
  I'm guessing those "comparable" EVs don't actually compare on range on a full tank vs. range on a full battery. Or on depreciation. When some battery breakthrough finally hits the market and unfucks EVs so they don't weigh twice as much as regular vehicles to go half as far, then you'll be left with $1-2k worth of metal around a worthless battery that nobody will want to buy anymore.
skhameneh 3y ago
I would recommend getting quotes for solar from EnergySage and consider going without a battery. Incentives and prices will vary over time. While there is new "tech" for solar in the pipeline, it will take time to reach market. As prices decrease, incentives will as well. Be mindful of how incentives and financing may stack, EnergySage will provide all the info you need to make an informed decision.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  > EnergySage I love it. Went there, and it gave me two options. One with a 17.2 year payback, and a second where I get a loan and my 20 year savings are -$27K. Ha! Seems like they should just replace that second option with "we calculated this one and it turns out you'd lose a bunch of money, it's not feasible." Alas, 17.2 years is longer than my current roof has left before replacement, and almost certainly longer than I'll live here. Maybe the next house. Especially since I'm thinking of moving somewhere with enough open land that I can just DIY a nice ground-mount setup instead of mucking about with holes in the roof.
  - jandrese 3y ago
    "Solar Loans" are pretty much always a bad idea. Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) are even worse. If you can't buy the system outright consider getting a Home Equity loan. This is exactly the sort of thing they are designed for and have much less overhead than any other option. In the US we suffer from high demand in a small market allowing installers to inflate the system prices considerably. We should be paying less than $2/watt installed, but you see quotes for like $4-$8/watt all the time because these companies get to pick their customers.
    - PaulDavisThe1st 3y ago
      > We should be paying less than $2/watt installed Hmm, not sure how much prices have changed, but I installed my own ground mount 7kW array(s) back in 2020, and that was right around $2/watt with me doing all the work except a concrete mixer dump session for the footings.
marssaxman 3y ago
I can understand waiting on an EV, but why wait on solar? An EPA subsidized "energy efficiency" loan will cover the cost of the installation, with a payment lower than your power bill. You save money immediately and break even in ~7 years. I had solar panels installed a little over ten years ago, for environmental reasons, and I was surprised to learn that the economics were already good enough to make it work out as a benefit in purely financial terms. Equipment has only gotten better since then.
- fbdab103 3y ago
  There are a ton of factors that go into making solar a sound decision. Will the person plan on living there for the next 5-10 years? Will installation costs finally start falling three years from now? Will the government institute a large grid connection fee so as to significantly impact payback periods? Is the roof going to need replacement within the next 10 years?
- elzbardico 3y ago
  Net metering is in practice a subsidy for solar owners and probably won't last long. Without net metering things are not as good.