5 ms·

Any story like this always summons up people eager to cry 'But where I am is an exception'. They rarely say where they actually are. The thing that most count

by Jedd 3y ago

Any story like this always summons up people eager to cry 'But where I am is an exception'. They rarely say where they actually are. The thing that most countries - a convenient non-geo construct only because most countries have a national grid - who claim to be exceptional have in common, is a firm commitment to the idea that they are exceptional. I am reminded of that onion headline that ends 'says only nation where this regularly happens'. I concede that it's possible you happen to live somewhere that is out of reach of a grid that in turn has potential feeds from hydro (pumped or otherwise), solar pvc, solar thermal, geothermal, tidal, wind, and so on. But I doubt that's likely to be the case. (That you mention California makes me assume you're somewhere in the USA.)

dukeofdoom 3y ago
I don't want to call it delusional, because green technology is feasible in some places. But in a lot of places and applications it's not just that it doesn't work, it's not feasible to ever work. Inflation is bad enough now. To blindly push it like a communist ideology...don't be surprised when the lower classes revolt because they can't heat their homes or afford food, due to cost of energy trickling into the price of everything. This guy explains it better than I can. https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246661?lang=en https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246...
- lokar 3y ago
  Pricing externalities correctly is the height of capitalist economic thinking.
- Jedd 3y ago
  Yup, this is what I mean about 'we're exceptional' claims. 'It can't work here, and can never work here, because ...' and then followed by some basic math mistakes wrapped up into some wild extrapolations, augmented with some demonstrably pessimistic assumptions that every piece of the stack can't ever get better, or be swapped out for something better. That suspiciously well-prepared rando on tiktok you used as a citation - the comments attached to that thread quite rightly point out his math mistakes, around hydro generation, dam sizes, and so on. He's also assuming that rail will never augment / replace large tracts of (currently) road transport - which is a despairingly safe claim in the USA, where rail infrastructure is just awful, but it doesn't need to be forever. He then assumes the only way you can 'green' truck transport is to use current-tech (Lithium) batteries - this is obviously not the case, and Lithium / solid state batteries are probably NOT the answer there anyway. He says the logging truck uses 2.5 MW (not MWh) of power per day - and then talks about '3 megawatt battery pack' - not MWh. Essentially he's ignoring the fact that the height of technology that is transport infrastructure today is the result of a century of roads, mining/drilling, refineries, fuel distribution, engine/truck design. He's effectively repeating that standard trope - 'green tech' at year #10 isn't as integrated as fossil tech at year #100, so it can be dismissed. Clearly some practice has gone into reciting this rant, but it's not a compelling argument for the 'we can't get there from here' camp.
  - dukeofdoom 3y ago
    He built his own electric logging truck: https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7292048160296406277?lang=en https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7292048160296406... If you think BC's mountainous forests can be logged using rail lines ... I don't know what to tell you. The rest is you projecting "exceptional claims" about green technology, that amount to wishful thinking.
    - Jedd 3y ago
      Well, he's retrofitted batteries to a diesel, and ended up with a hybrid diesel / electric truck. I have no idea about local terrain, and really, if the mill(s) are at the bottom of the hills, and there's no longer-haul trucking component to the transport from felling site to mill location that could be better served by rail, then I'll concede that point. On the other hand, you used this guy's argument to explain why electric trucks can't possible work in this environment. And then used this same guy's electric truck to demonstrate how they can. Pick one.
    - amatecha 3y ago
      Not viewing the tiktok links so I don't know the full context, but 98% of BC's power is from "clean, renewable sources" apparently: https://choose.bchydro.com/why-choose-bc/clean-renewable-energy https://choose.bchydro.com/why-choose-bc/clean-renewable-ene... BTW, eventually "green" energy _has_ to work, because sooner or later, fossil fuels are going to run out. I mean, the sooner we figure this out in an effective way, the better. It's literally pointless to argue against the inevitability of needing truly renewable energy.
      - someplaceguy 3y ago
        > fossil fuels are going to run out Depends on what you mean by "run out". In reality, it will never actually run out. It will just keep progressively increasing in cost, with progressively less profitable uses for it, which will progressively be replaced by other technologies (including renewables but also others like sustainable aviation fuel).

by Jedd 3y ago

dukeofdoom 3y ago

I don't want to call it delusional, because green technology is feasible in some places. But in a lot of places and applications it's not just that it doesn't work, it's not feasible to ever work. Inflation is bad enough now. To blindly push it like a communist ideology...don't be surprised when the lower classes revolt because they can't heat their homes or afford food, due to cost of energy trickling into the price of everything. This guy explains it better than I can. https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246661?lang=en https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7294648129654246...

lokar 3y ago
Pricing externalities correctly is the height of capitalist economic thinking.
Jedd 3y ago
Yup, this is what I mean about 'we're exceptional' claims. 'It can't work here, and can never work here, because ...' and then followed by some basic math mistakes wrapped up into some wild extrapolations, augmented with some demonstrably pessimistic assumptions that every piece of the stack can't ever get better, or be swapped out for something better. That suspiciously well-prepared rando on tiktok you used as a citation - the comments attached to that thread quite rightly point out his math mistakes, around hydro generation, dam sizes, and so on. He's also assuming that rail will never augment / replace large tracts of (currently) road transport - which is a despairingly safe claim in the USA, where rail infrastructure is just awful, but it doesn't need to be forever. He then assumes the only way you can 'green' truck transport is to use current-tech (Lithium) batteries - this is obviously not the case, and Lithium / solid state batteries are probably NOT the answer there anyway. He says the logging truck uses 2.5 MW (not MWh) of power per day - and then talks about '3 megawatt battery pack' - not MWh. Essentially he's ignoring the fact that the height of technology that is transport infrastructure today is the result of a century of roads, mining/drilling, refineries, fuel distribution, engine/truck design. He's effectively repeating that standard trope - 'green tech' at year #10 isn't as integrated as fossil tech at year #100, so it can be dismissed. Clearly some practice has gone into reciting this rant, but it's not a compelling argument for the 'we can't get there from here' camp.
- dukeofdoom 3y ago
  He built his own electric logging truck: https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7292048160296406277?lang=en https://www.tiktok.com/@freightfamous/video/7292048160296406... If you think BC's mountainous forests can be logged using rail lines ... I don't know what to tell you. The rest is you projecting "exceptional claims" about green technology, that amount to wishful thinking.
  - Jedd 3y ago
    Well, he's retrofitted batteries to a diesel, and ended up with a hybrid diesel / electric truck. I have no idea about local terrain, and really, if the mill(s) are at the bottom of the hills, and there's no longer-haul trucking component to the transport from felling site to mill location that could be better served by rail, then I'll concede that point. On the other hand, you used this guy's argument to explain why electric trucks can't possible work in this environment. And then used this same guy's electric truck to demonstrate how they can. Pick one.
  - amatecha 3y ago
    Not viewing the tiktok links so I don't know the full context, but 98% of BC's power is from "clean, renewable sources" apparently: https://choose.bchydro.com/why-choose-bc/clean-renewable-energy https://choose.bchydro.com/why-choose-bc/clean-renewable-ene... BTW, eventually "green" energy _has_ to work, because sooner or later, fossil fuels are going to run out. I mean, the sooner we figure this out in an effective way, the better. It's literally pointless to argue against the inevitability of needing truly renewable energy.
    - someplaceguy 3y ago
      > fossil fuels are going to run out Depends on what you mean by "run out". In reality, it will never actually run out. It will just keep progressively increasing in cost, with progressively less profitable uses for it, which will progressively be replaced by other technologies (including renewables but also others like sustainable aviation fuel).