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Note that since about 2021 renewables have overtaken fossil-based sources of energy on price. New installations of utility scale wind and solar PV are now cheap

Note that since about 2021 renewables have overtaken fossil-based sources of energy on price. New installations of utility scale wind and solar PV are now cheaper than their alternatives. Not to mention protection from price fluctuations in the cost of fuels needed to power fossil fuel plants.

kuchenbecker 3y ago
The backlog of hooking variable load sources to the US electric grid is very long, often requires retrofitting the grid, and cost is borne by the generator. It's not as simple as having the capacity because power is used the instant it's produced.
- bobthepanda 3y ago
  IIRC there are actually starting to be wind, solar and pumped hydro sited at former coal mines and plants because they already have transmission capacity. (In the case of pumped hydro, a coal mine can also act as a big hole with an elevation difference to drive a turbine.)
  - syllablehq 3y ago
    There's lots of exciting progress happening with underground mechanical storage like this. It's so interesting that the U.S. DOE has been studying underground pumped hydro since at least the 1980.(https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6517343 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6517343) Today: - Hydrostor just signed a near $1 Billion contract to build their first underground facility in California using advanced compressed air with water to help efficiency. See also: Green Gravity, Gravitricity, Terrament, Renewell, RheEnergise, and more.
    - kuchenbecker 3y ago
      My comment is less about storage and more about the physics of the Grid (not an expert though so fact check me) It's largely one giant multitenant pool of both capacity and consumption with Voltage being the indicator. Variable load sources often change transmission requirements on existing lines because there can be power draw increase between A and B where previous there was less generation at A.
monero-xmr 3y ago
Why did they cancel all the wind power plants in New Jersey even though they are cheaper?
- fyrn_ 3y ago
  Back before the interest rate increases even barely tenable projects were doable. Cost of financing is higher now, so the risk equation changes. That company is still going ahead with a project in New York, and Jersey has another wind projected lined up from another company. Wouldn't take this single data point as indicating anything meaningful
  - hef19898 3y ago
    Yeah, start-upsnonly fail because of the interest rate hike and not because they are unsustainable businesses. But other sectors requiring serious financing are absolutely not affected... Not.
    - Symbiote 3y ago
      Ørested isn't a startup, it's a decades-old energy company which built the first off-shore wind turbines. It used to be called DONG, Danish Oil and Natural Gas.
      - hef19898 3y ago
        And their projects still need outside funding. Funding which is impacted by inflation and intrest rates, expoaing the project, and hence the company behind it, to financial impacts the same way start-ups are: money all of a sudden isn't free anymore.
- addicted 3y ago
  Offshore wind is also the most expensive form of wind/solar. With financing getting more expensive its almost certain that some of the more financially on the edge projects would get cancelled and since offshore wind is easily the most expensive, it’s unsurprising that in renewable energy those are the projects getting cancelled.
alexnewman 3y ago
Alas only at 0% interest rates. When you factor in 5% rates they are below again
- voisin 3y ago
  Source for this? I would think inflation in construction and maintenance costs for traditional generation would still keep it more expensive.
  - alexnewman 3y ago
    says me. i invest heavily here and do own maths. look to capital vs op costs of renewable
    - Retric 3y ago
      I have, what you may be missing is current interest rates are linked to high inflation rates which drive up the long term costs of fossil fuels. If inflation drops and interest rates drop you can refinance your renewables. The calculation depends on how good the specific location is for wind/solar but outside of unusually poor areas, like the UK, solar is easily the cheapest option.
  - collegeburner 3y ago
    there might be privileged financing somewhere i'm not aware of but it's a tough space rn. had breakfast with someone who's been in financing and constructing these for a long time and he's still working on it but much tougher. if you want a public markets proxy, look at invesco's solar etf; down by around half. sedg is down 75% existing infrastructure is more maintenance than construction
  - snewman 3y ago
    For renewables, most of the cost is up front, then they're cheap to run because they don't need fuel. (High capex, low opex.) Fossil fuel plants have more of a mix of upfront and operating costs. High interest rates make it expensive to borrow the upfront cost of renewables.
lispisok 3y ago
Does take in account oil taxes and renewable subsidies?
- thelastgallon 3y ago
  You got it backwards. Fossil fuels are subsidized, 7 trillion dollars per year: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climate-change-why-are-governments-still-subsidizing-fossil-fuels#xj4y7vzkg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climat...
  - lispisok 3y ago
    I knew somebody was going to regurgitate this. That's if you make up some number for fossil fuel externalities and count it as a subsidy. Pollution from fossil fuels is a very real and very big issue but it has been presented in such a way that people think governments are actually giving oil companies trillions of dollars in direct subsidies. No other business has had this kind of math applied to it. The fossil fuel industry is taxed heavily from when the oil comes out of the ground to people pumping gas into their cars, it is a huge tax revenue generator. I really want to emphasizes the "make up a number" part. Trying to understand the physical part of climate change is already a monstrous task with big uncertainty. From there trying to to estimate economic effects is basically impossible.
    - _Algernon_ 3y ago
      Big [citation needed]
      - vbeeaz 3y ago
        Citation needed for that number, I suppose, because the number is absolutely made up. There is no way to determine the cost of the externalities of fossil fuels (if they exist). Even if we were to say that CO2 is causing global warming so we need to remove it from the atmosphere, such technology does not yet exist, so we don't know how much it would cost.
numitus 3y ago
what about flucation of solar radiation and wind force?

kuchenbecker 3y ago

The backlog of hooking variable load sources to the US electric grid is very long, often requires retrofitting the grid, and cost is borne by the generator. It's not as simple as having the capacity because power is used the instant it's produced.

bobthepanda 3y ago
IIRC there are actually starting to be wind, solar and pumped hydro sited at former coal mines and plants because they already have transmission capacity. (In the case of pumped hydro, a coal mine can also act as a big hole with an elevation difference to drive a turbine.)
- syllablehq 3y ago
  There's lots of exciting progress happening with underground mechanical storage like this. It's so interesting that the U.S. DOE has been studying underground pumped hydro since at least the 1980.(https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6517343 https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6517343) Today: - Hydrostor just signed a near $1 Billion contract to build their first underground facility in California using advanced compressed air with water to help efficiency. See also: Green Gravity, Gravitricity, Terrament, Renewell, RheEnergise, and more.
  - kuchenbecker 3y ago
    My comment is less about storage and more about the physics of the Grid (not an expert though so fact check me) It's largely one giant multitenant pool of both capacity and consumption with Voltage being the indicator. Variable load sources often change transmission requirements on existing lines because there can be power draw increase between A and B where previous there was less generation at A.

monero-xmr 3y ago

Why did they cancel all the wind power plants in New Jersey even though they are cheaper?

fyrn_ 3y ago
Back before the interest rate increases even barely tenable projects were doable. Cost of financing is higher now, so the risk equation changes. That company is still going ahead with a project in New York, and Jersey has another wind projected lined up from another company. Wouldn't take this single data point as indicating anything meaningful
- hef19898 3y ago
  Yeah, start-upsnonly fail because of the interest rate hike and not because they are unsustainable businesses. But other sectors requiring serious financing are absolutely not affected... Not.
  - Symbiote 3y ago
    Ørested isn't a startup, it's a decades-old energy company which built the first off-shore wind turbines. It used to be called DONG, Danish Oil and Natural Gas.
    - hef19898 3y ago
      And their projects still need outside funding. Funding which is impacted by inflation and intrest rates, expoaing the project, and hence the company behind it, to financial impacts the same way start-ups are: money all of a sudden isn't free anymore.
addicted 3y ago
Offshore wind is also the most expensive form of wind/solar. With financing getting more expensive its almost certain that some of the more financially on the edge projects would get cancelled and since offshore wind is easily the most expensive, it’s unsurprising that in renewable energy those are the projects getting cancelled.

alexnewman 3y ago

Alas only at 0% interest rates. When you factor in 5% rates they are below again

voisin 3y ago
Source for this? I would think inflation in construction and maintenance costs for traditional generation would still keep it more expensive.
- alexnewman 3y ago
  says me. i invest heavily here and do own maths. look to capital vs op costs of renewable
  - Retric 3y ago
    I have, what you may be missing is current interest rates are linked to high inflation rates which drive up the long term costs of fossil fuels. If inflation drops and interest rates drop you can refinance your renewables. The calculation depends on how good the specific location is for wind/solar but outside of unusually poor areas, like the UK, solar is easily the cheapest option.
- collegeburner 3y ago
  there might be privileged financing somewhere i'm not aware of but it's a tough space rn. had breakfast with someone who's been in financing and constructing these for a long time and he's still working on it but much tougher. if you want a public markets proxy, look at invesco's solar etf; down by around half. sedg is down 75% existing infrastructure is more maintenance than construction
- snewman 3y ago
  For renewables, most of the cost is up front, then they're cheap to run because they don't need fuel. (High capex, low opex.) Fossil fuel plants have more of a mix of upfront and operating costs. High interest rates make it expensive to borrow the upfront cost of renewables.

lispisok 3y ago

Does take in account oil taxes and renewable subsidies?

thelastgallon 3y ago
You got it backwards. Fossil fuels are subsidized, 7 trillion dollars per year: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climate-change-why-are-governments-still-subsidizing-fossil-fuels#xj4y7vzkg https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-10-16/climat...
- lispisok 3y ago
  I knew somebody was going to regurgitate this. That's if you make up some number for fossil fuel externalities and count it as a subsidy. Pollution from fossil fuels is a very real and very big issue but it has been presented in such a way that people think governments are actually giving oil companies trillions of dollars in direct subsidies. No other business has had this kind of math applied to it. The fossil fuel industry is taxed heavily from when the oil comes out of the ground to people pumping gas into their cars, it is a huge tax revenue generator. I really want to emphasizes the "make up a number" part. Trying to understand the physical part of climate change is already a monstrous task with big uncertainty. From there trying to to estimate economic effects is basically impossible.
  - _Algernon_ 3y ago
    Big [citation needed]
    - vbeeaz 3y ago
      Citation needed for that number, I suppose, because the number is absolutely made up. There is no way to determine the cost of the externalities of fossil fuels (if they exist). Even if we were to say that CO2 is causing global warming so we need to remove it from the atmosphere, such technology does not yet exist, so we don't know how much it would cost.

numitus 3y ago

what about flucation of solar radiation and wind force?