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It still is. I farm outside of my day job and trying to schedule time to do things like cut hay is sort of a crapshoot. Hay needs a 3-4 day window to dry, rake
by eppp 3y ago
It still is. I farm outside of my day job and trying to schedule time to do things like cut hay is sort of a crapshoot. Hay needs a 3-4 day window to dry, rake and roll. This year I got rained on at least twice on days where the NWS showed clear and sunny for 3 days on the spot forecast. 20% or 50% chance of rain is almost useless knowledge. We went for weeks with a 20% chance and it never rained. We still got everything done but it sticks out a lot when you are watching it closely.
- TSiege 3y agoWell it's actually not a 20% or 50% chance of rain. It's that it will definitely rain but only for 20-50% of the projected area forecasted
- ellisv 3y agoThis is exactly wrong. > The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) simply describes the probability that the forecast grid/point in question will receive at least 0.01" of rain. [1] https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop It is worth noting the estimate is an areal average.
- deleted 3y ago[deleted]
- lettergram 3y agoYup, I had the same issue. Showed 4 days of clear 80-90 degree weather. Twice in that timeframe it rained (!1 inch each time), ruined the cut.
- Workaccount2 3y agoIf you live in an area with "summer storms" it's basically impossible to forecast anything more than a general area (usually thousands of square miles) that they will appear in. Its like a shotgun shooting a wall. You can pretty accurately predict the area of the shot, but its incredibly hard to place where exactly each shot in that area will land.
- eppp 3y agoI do live in such an area and we end up just taking the risk a lot of the time. Most of the time it is fine. Sometimes disaster. It is a bit frustrating.