2 ms·
I can't see any citation to accuracy comparisons, or maybe I just missed them? Given the amount of data, and complexity of the domain, it would be good to see a
by layoric 3y ago
I can't see any citation to accuracy comparisons, or maybe I just missed them? Given the amount of data, and complexity of the domain, it would be good to see a much more detailed breakdown of their performance vs other models.
My experience in this space is that I was first employee at Solcast building a live 'nowcast' system for 4+ years (left ~2021) targeting solar radiation and cloud opacity initially, but expanding into all aspects of weather, focusing on the use of the newer generation of satellites, but also heavily using NWP models like ECMWF. Last I knew,nowcasts were made in minutes on a decent size cluster of systems, and has been shown in various studies and comparisons to produce extremely accurate data (This article claims 'the best' without links which is weird..), be interesting on how many TPUsv4 were used to produce these forecasts and how quickly? Solcast used ML as a part of their systems, but when it comes down to it, there is a lot more operationally to producing accurate and reliable forecasts, eg it would be arrogant to say the least to switch from something like ECMWF to this black box anytime soon.
Something I said as just before I left Solcast was that their biggest competition would come from Amazon/Google/Microsoft and not other incumbent weather companies. They have some really smart modelers, but its hard to compete with big tech resources. I believe Amazon has been acquiring power usage IoT related companies over the past few years, I can see AI heavily moving into that space as well.. for better or worse.
- shmageggy 3y agoI think the paper has what you are looking for. Several figures comparing performance to HRES, and "GraphCast... took roughly four weeks on 32 Cloud TPU v4 devices using batch parallelism. See supplementary materials section 4 for further training details."
- alxmrs 3y agoI’m so happy you asked about this! Check out https://sites.research.google/weatherbench/ https://sites.research.google/weatherbench/