4 ms·

why does it looks like it was coordinated by the Ukrainian military, and hypothetically, would would Ukraine win by weakening gas supply to western Europe?

jacquesm 3y ago
These are the right questions to ask and given that a successful attack on EU infrastructure that got traced back to Ukraine would be an extremely risky thing to do for Ukraine I have my doubts about the likelihood of that scenario. It's within the realm of the possible but of course there are also false flag operations. I wonder if we'll ever know with certainty who did this short of someone spilling inside info, and I also wonder whether any of the participants in that raid are still alive. As for what Ukraine would win: hypothetically: they could cause Germany to stop relying on Russian gas a bit quicker. But there are other parties that stood a lot more to gain from this and 'qui bono' is an even better question, especially in the context of a false flag. The fact that the trail that was uncovered was a mile wide is in itself quite suspicious.
ceejayoz 3y ago
It's not an unreasonable idea; the other major routes for Russian gas imports transit through Ukraine and Belarus (https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-oil-and-gas-pipelines-from-Russia-credit-US-Energy-Information-Administration_fig2_268047847 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-oil-and-gas-pipel...). Nordstream was the only major one not within reasonable reach of Ukraine's normal armed forces. For obvious reasons, Ukraine doesn't want Europe paying Russia billions for natural gas right now. I'm dubious that the risk to European support is worth it for Ukraine; they're hardly the only ones with means, motive, and opportunity.
- jacquesm 3y ago
  And yet, the pipelines on Ukrainian soil remain unmolested. It's entirely possible though that there is a schism in the Ukrainian power structure that would insulate the politicians from over-eager military people.
  - ceejayoz 3y ago
    They control those, though. There's no need to preemptively strike against something you can turn off at will.
    - jacquesm 3y ago
      And they haven't... but if they wanted to bomb them to create plausible deniability they have had plenty of opportunity. There are so many little factoids about this thing that it is very hard to make sense of it, for instance this little tidbit: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/russian-navy-vessel-seen-near-nord-stream-pipelines-days-before-blasts https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/russian-navy-v...
      - ceejayoz 3y ago
        Yesh; Russians definitely also have means, motive, and opportunity. Barring some country coming out and admitting it, we may never know for certain.
canadiantim 3y ago
The Washington Post put out some investigative reporting detailing this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/...
- jacquesm 3y ago
  It's very far away from anything that you could call proof. Read carefully: besides the title the whole article is full of disclaimers. Already on line two "say people familiar with planning" -> but not who those people are. Anonymity, 'people familiar with his role', that bit is repeated over and over. I'll reserve my skepticism until there is hard proof and even then: if it turns out that this was a rogue action how much weight should be attached to it? Does that rule out some invisible paymaster? Ukraine top government officials have denied involvement and knowledge of involvement and that's where it stands for now. The article would have been improved if it had said 'Allegedly' in the title, which given the thin sourcing is not a minor oversight.

jacquesm 3y ago

These are the right questions to ask and given that a successful attack on EU infrastructure that got traced back to Ukraine would be an extremely risky thing to do for Ukraine I have my doubts about the likelihood of that scenario. It's within the realm of the possible but of course there are also false flag operations. I wonder if we'll ever know with certainty who did this short of someone spilling inside info, and I also wonder whether any of the participants in that raid are still alive. As for what Ukraine would win: hypothetically: they could cause Germany to stop relying on Russian gas a bit quicker. But there are other parties that stood a lot more to gain from this and 'qui bono' is an even better question, especially in the context of a false flag. The fact that the trail that was uncovered was a mile wide is in itself quite suspicious.

ceejayoz 3y ago

It's not an unreasonable idea; the other major routes for Russian gas imports transit through Ukraine and Belarus (https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-oil-and-gas-pipelines-from-Russia-credit-US-Energy-Information-Administration_fig2_268047847 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-of-oil-and-gas-pipel...). Nordstream was the only major one not within reasonable reach of Ukraine's normal armed forces. For obvious reasons, Ukraine doesn't want Europe paying Russia billions for natural gas right now. I'm dubious that the risk to European support is worth it for Ukraine; they're hardly the only ones with means, motive, and opportunity.

jacquesm 3y ago
And yet, the pipelines on Ukrainian soil remain unmolested. It's entirely possible though that there is a schism in the Ukrainian power structure that would insulate the politicians from over-eager military people.
- ceejayoz 3y ago
  They control those, though. There's no need to preemptively strike against something you can turn off at will.
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    And they haven't... but if they wanted to bomb them to create plausible deniability they have had plenty of opportunity. There are so many little factoids about this thing that it is very hard to make sense of it, for instance this little tidbit: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/russian-navy-vessel-seen-near-nord-stream-pipelines-days-before-blasts https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/russian-navy-v...
    - ceejayoz 3y ago
      Yesh; Russians definitely also have means, motive, and opportunity. Barring some country coming out and admitting it, we may never know for certain.

canadiantim 3y ago

The Washington Post put out some investigative reporting detailing this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/nordstream-bombing-ukraine-chervinsky/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/11/11/...

jacquesm 3y ago
It's very far away from anything that you could call proof. Read carefully: besides the title the whole article is full of disclaimers. Already on line two "say people familiar with planning" -> but not who those people are. Anonymity, 'people familiar with his role', that bit is repeated over and over. I'll reserve my skepticism until there is hard proof and even then: if it turns out that this was a rogue action how much weight should be attached to it? Does that rule out some invisible paymaster? Ukraine top government officials have denied involvement and knowledge of involvement and that's where it stands for now. The article would have been improved if it had said 'Allegedly' in the title, which given the thin sourcing is not a minor oversight.