2 ms·

At this stage, it's like a junior. It's pretty useful for the boilerplate or mundane stuff and even with implementation of algorithms from human description to

by mrtksn 3y ago

At this stage, it's like a junior. It's pretty useful for the boilerplate or mundane stuff and even with implementation of algorithms from human description to computer code. It's also very good at converting a code from one language to another and getting stuff done when directed properly. I can definitely see how large impact it will have on the employment prospects of many. It's not replacing the engineers yet, but those who specialise in a tech as an implementation specialist are screwed. Even the increased productivity alone will reduce the demand.

vasco 3y ago
In most real world systems increased efficiency leads to more demand, not less - barring physical constraints. Usually because we can now apply the _thing_ to way more complex scenarios. I predict way more software will be created per year and more complex software will exist and evolve at a faster pace. Once you make agriculture more efficient we can't really eat way more than today so we need less people working there. But if you make software easier to write, I think you'll just end up with way more software because the complexity of human needs and processes is unbounded unlike eating food. Also called the efficiency paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
- mrtksn 3y ago
  Sure, the total demand increases but not the same kind of demand that it's replacing. We may end up seeing CSS specialists "rust belt" falling in poverty while theres substantial wealth build up among "prompt engineers" with good taste in aesthetics.
  - vasco 3y ago
    In any job if you overspecialize and don't learn the fundamentals you're at risk. A CSS specialist is like a CRT TV fixer as compared to a general programmer and an electrician, respectively. Those jobs always have numbered days.
    - mrtksn 3y ago
      Lot's of people make good many because of that over specialisation. They acquire deep understanding of these tools and that's how they become experts of something instead of jack of all trades and master of none. Of course, they end up outdated in the areas they don't practice and risk being wiped out if the toolset they specialise or the whole industry falls out of favor. That's also why we have people who once were middle class but now their wealth and influence decays and they feel left back. With de-industrialization, that happened to awful lot of people in classical industries for example. Also, with progressing age it becomes harder and harder to adapt. As a twist in fate, maybe the AI people will eat the Software people who ate the classical industry people. Some will adapt and prosper, most won't because they will be busy doing their jobs and getting paid good salaries in comfortable jobs. The software ate the world, the AI will eat the software.
manmal 3y ago
> Even the increased productivity alone will reduce the demand I’d argue that companies cutting their software budget will soon be overtaken by their competition. Software is never done, after all.

by mrtksn 3y ago

vasco 3y ago

In most real world systems increased efficiency leads to more demand, not less - barring physical constraints. Usually because we can now apply the _thing_ to way more complex scenarios. I predict way more software will be created per year and more complex software will exist and evolve at a faster pace. Once you make agriculture more efficient we can't really eat way more than today so we need less people working there. But if you make software easier to write, I think you'll just end up with way more software because the complexity of human needs and processes is unbounded unlike eating food. Also called the efficiency paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

mrtksn 3y ago
Sure, the total demand increases but not the same kind of demand that it's replacing. We may end up seeing CSS specialists "rust belt" falling in poverty while theres substantial wealth build up among "prompt engineers" with good taste in aesthetics.
- vasco 3y ago
  In any job if you overspecialize and don't learn the fundamentals you're at risk. A CSS specialist is like a CRT TV fixer as compared to a general programmer and an electrician, respectively. Those jobs always have numbered days.
  - mrtksn 3y ago
    Lot's of people make good many because of that over specialisation. They acquire deep understanding of these tools and that's how they become experts of something instead of jack of all trades and master of none. Of course, they end up outdated in the areas they don't practice and risk being wiped out if the toolset they specialise or the whole industry falls out of favor. That's also why we have people who once were middle class but now their wealth and influence decays and they feel left back. With de-industrialization, that happened to awful lot of people in classical industries for example. Also, with progressing age it becomes harder and harder to adapt. As a twist in fate, maybe the AI people will eat the Software people who ate the classical industry people. Some will adapt and prosper, most won't because they will be busy doing their jobs and getting paid good salaries in comfortable jobs. The software ate the world, the AI will eat the software.

manmal 3y ago

> Even the increased productivity alone will reduce the demand I’d argue that companies cutting their software budget will soon be overtaken by their competition. Software is never done, after all.